Page 4 - AsiaElec Week 18

AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec
6% fall in energy demand not enough to meet climate challenges
A 6% fall in energy demand is not enough to combat climate change on a sustained basis, warns the IEA, although the crisis has given a glimpse of what needs to be done
GLOBAL
WHAT:
The IEA expects emissions to fall by 8% and energy demand by 6% in 2020
WHY:
COVID-19 is the biggest shock to the global energy system in over 70 years
WHAT NEXT:
Governments must put renewables at the heart of the stimulus packages if emissions are not to rebound to pre-crisis levels
THE IEA has subbed the current COVID-19 crisis the, “biggest shock to the global energy system in over 70 years,” and expects emissions to fall by 8% in 2020.
“Amid today’s unparalleled health and eco- nomic crises, the plunge in demand for nearly all major fuels is staggering, especially for coal, oil and gas. Only renewables are holding up during the previously unheard-of slump in electricity use,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA executive director.
Major uncertainties
The organisation’s 2020 Global Energy Review, published this week, forecasts that global energy demand is set to fall by 6% in 2020, a drop seven times greater than in the wake of the 2009 crisis.
While the coronavirus pandemic has shut down much of the global economy up till now, the IEA warned that there were still “major uncertainties” about how the pandemic will play out.
The body assumes that the current lock- downs, curfews and closures of schools and businesses will gradually ease over the com- ing months, while admitting that nothing was certain.
Postcard from the future
The headlines figure is the 8% fall in emissions to 30.6bn tonnes of CO2 equivalent, which is higher than many forecasts previously published by a range of bodies.
For example, in March, Carbon Brief pre- dicted that emissions would fall by 4% in 2020.
The key takeaway from the 8% figure is that this is the percentage fall put forward by the IPCC if the world is to limit temperature rises to 1.5C by 2030 when compared to pre-industrial temperatures.
However, the IPCC’s 8% needs to be repeated every year this decade.
And here the IEA warns that if the 2020 drop is just a one-off, then the IPCC’s climate change targets will not be met by 2030.
As such, the IEA warned that the 8% fall is “absolutely nothing to cheer” about, and urged government and companies to put clean energy at the heart of their post-COVID-19 recovery plans.
The IEA is pessimistic about this, and warned that there is likely to be a sharp rebound in emissions.
2020’s “postcard from the future” runs the risk of being just that, a temporary message that will soon be forgotten as fossil fuel consumption recovers as transport and industry revive.
Energy demand
Meanwhile, the report noted that global energy demand was 3.8% lower year on year in the first quarter and predicts that on an annual basis demand will fall by 6% in 2020.
While energy demand from aviation, trans- port and industry has dropped, this has been off- set by demand growth in such areas as residential gas heating and electricity use by server farms.
In terms of fuels, oil and coal have been the big losers, with gas demand shrinking more slowly. Coal demand is forecast to fall by 8% on an annual basis, while oil is forecast to con- tract by 9%, after an unprecedented 29% drop in April. Gas demand will decrease by 5%, the IEA forecasts.
Indeed, the report stressed that coal has been the biggest loser, with demand shrinking 8% in the first quarter. This report said that China, a coal-based economy, was hit the hardest and ear- liest by the virus. Coal also suffered from cheap gas and continued growth in renewables, while mild weather also capped coal use.
Renewables output, on the other hand, rose by 3% in the first quarter, even though demand for electricity fell as lockdowns were enforced and economic activity diminished. The steepest decline in power demand has been posted in Italy (27%), India (23%) and Spain (20%).
This means that green energy’s share of coun- tries’ power mixes has grown, reaching record high hourly shares in such places as Belgium, Italy, Germany, Hungary and some US states.
For the whole of 2020, the IEA forecasts that only renewables will see any increase in global primary energy demand, up by 1%,
Looking ahead
The future is complex, and the report is pessimis- tic, noting a sharp rebound in emissions is highly
The report stressed that coal has been the biggest loser, with demand shrinking 8% in the first quarter
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 18 05•May•2020