Page 5 - AsiaElec Week 18

AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec
likely once the lockdown is lifted.
Also, while the sudden rise the green ener-
gy’s share of many countries fuel mix is welcome, early evidence from China shows that coal and other fossil fuels can be used to kick-start the economy.
Oil and coal prices have fallen, meaning that fossil fuel burning is a quick fix for governments. Also, while power demand and emissions may be falling, economic decline could prompt governments to take their foot of the energy
transition accelerator.
“The unprecedented decline in emissions in
2020 may only be temporary without structural changes. Recoveries from past crises have caused immediate rebounds in CO2 emissions, includ- ing the highest y/y increase on record in 2010,” the report warned.
This is a key point that Birol has made since the start of the COVID-19 crisis. He has urged governments to put clean energy at the heart of stimulus plans.
“We should not allow today’s crisis to com- promise our efforts to tackle the world’s inescap- able challenge,” he warned on March 14.
However, some regions may be more success- ful than others in driving forward renewables, both in 2020 and the coming decade.
A report from Fitch Solutions this week pre- dicts that non-hydro renewables could be West- ern Europe’s largest generation fuel by 2029, accounting for 31% of supply. This equates to 330GW of new green capacity between now and 2029, when there will be 1 TW of green gener- ation, the same as thermal capacity, Fitch said.
Conclusion
The IEA views that the decline in energy con- sumption and emissions caused by COVID-19, accompanied by the growth in renewables, offers government and companies a chance to see how a greener future would look.
However, it is the result of a global disaster and has come at a massive short-term economic cost that will affect economic growth levels for years to come.
Nevertheless, much could, and in all proba- bly will, be lost, as emissions are likely to bounce back after the lockdown as the global economy is opened again.
Renewables projects must now contend with a weak global economy, supply chain disruptions and a lower appetite for risk among investors.
The current project pipeline is exposed to risk, with many projects already being put on hold.
Green growth would fall in 2020 to 2019 levels of 126GW for solar and 71GW for wind, rather than the previously forecast 140GW of solar and 75GW of wind for this year, Rystad Energy said earlier in April. In Australia, up to 3GW of wind and solar projects in Australia is to be put on hold,
Wood Mackenzie, meanwhile, has cut its 2020 wind additions outlook by 4.9GW to 73GW, with the most significant potential impact in China and the US.
What government can do now and in the future is ensure that stimulus packages not only concentrate on economic growth but also accel- erate the transition to clean energy. ™
Economic decline could prompt governments to take their foot of the energy transition accelerator
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