Page 12 - IRANRptApr20

Iran’s official non-oil GDP enters growth territory of 0.9% in Persian third quarter
campaign to get re-elected in November ramps up.
Iranian GDP in 2018 shrank by 4.9% following growth of 3.8% in 2017.
The effects of the US throttling of Iran’s economy pushed Iranian inflation to more than 50% in mid-2019, partly reflecting the earlier severe depreciation of the Iranian rial (IRR) in the unofficial parallel market, but it subsided in late 2019 to below 30%.
Iran’s gross domestic product excluding oil extraction and production entered positive territory in the third quarter of the 2019/2020 Persian year (September 23 to December 21) with a growth rate of 0.9%, according to the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI).
The Iranian economy may be diversified but the crushing US sanctions introduced by the Trump administration incrementally since mid-2018 not only aim to wipe out Iranian oil exports, they target swathes of industry including automotive production, telecoms, petrochemicals, mining and metals.
Overall GDP in the Persian year Q3, including oil production, was in negative territory, with SCI officials posting -1.7%. The agriculture, mining and services sectors endured contractions of -1.4%, -1.9% and 0.7%, respectively.
Overall GDP in the first three quarters of the current Persian year (March 21 to December 21, 2019) stood at -7.6%. When oil is removed from the calculation, growth was a flat 0%.
Agriculture, mining and services registered Q1-to-Q3 rates of 3.2%, -16.6% and -0.2, respectively.
3.1​ ​Macroeconomic outlook
IMF sees no additional impact of sanctions on Iran’s economy in 2020
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not see US sanctions having an additional impact on Iran’s economy next year. The IMF forecasts that Iran’s economy will contract by 9.5% this year but also that Iranian GDP growth will be flat next year.
“The estimate is that ... sanctions that were reintroduced last year and tightened this year, next year will not have an additional impact,” Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, was cited as saying by Reuters on October 28.
12​ IRAN Country Report April 2020 www.intellinews.com