Page 13 - IRANRptApr20

The same day, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, on a visit to Jerusalem, told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: "We will continue to ramp up [sanctions on Iran], more, more, more ... I just came from a very productive working lunch with your team. They gave us a bunch of very specific ideas that we will be following up."
The IMF has also predicted that Iran will have a fiscal deficit of 4.5% in 2019 and 5.1% in 2020. Iran would need oil priced at $194.6 a barrel to balance its budget in 2020, it said. On the inflation front, the Fund said Iran can expect 35.7% this year and 31% next year.
It reiterated its recommendation that the Iranian authorities should align the Iranian rial (IRR) official exchange rate with the market rate to control inflation. Looking at trade, the IMF forecast Iran’s exports of goods and services will drop to $60.3bn this year from $103.2bn last year, and will fall further to $55.5bn in 2020.
4.0​ Real Economy
Iran - Main Macro Indicators
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annual GDP (y/y)
-6.6 -1.9 4.3 4.4 13.4 3.8 -4.9
GDP (per capita) (USD)
7,719.77 7,931.07 6,007.46 5,579.25 4,899.68 5,230.19 5,494.06
GDP: Final consumption expenditure: Private (IRR bn)
3,208,428 4,505,167 5,262,427
5,656,000
6,236,000
7,032,000
3,899,000 (Q1-Q2)
GDP: Final consumption expenditure: Government (IRR bn)
713,990 868,334
1,160,266
1,301,000
1,700,000
1,952,000
1,134,000 (Q1-Q2)
GDP: Gross fixed capital formation, (IRR bn)
1,809,515 2,386,025 3,048,276
2,606,000
2,552,000
2,885,000
1,578,000 (Q1-Q2)
GDP: Exports, (lRR bn)
473,222 376,386 376,240 421,236 / /
GDP: Imports, (IRR bn)
449,701 345,821 281,210 265,210 / /
Source: CEIC; Central Bank of Iran
4.1​ Industrial production
Iranian president tasks officials with creating a “production boom” in face of US sanctions
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has tasked ministries and state bodies to pursue measures that will create a production boom and has ordered the removal of barriers to foreign investment that could be delivered by expatriate Iranians, Mehr News reported on May 20.
Iran’s economy is reeling from the unprecedented US sanctions regime aimed at everything from the automotive sector to oil, gas, petrochemicals, metals, banking and​ ​nuclear technology​, ​among many other areas. Foreign investment has plummeted with large players like Total and PSA Group exiting the country. The Islamic Republic finds itself sinking into a deeper and deeper recession. In April, the IMF predicted its economy would contract 6% this year—but that forecast was put together before the US, from May, started a
13​ IRAN Country Report April 2020 www.intellinews.com