Page 11 - BELRptMar19

4.0 Real Economy
Belarus - Main Macro Indicators 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Annual GDP (y/y)
5.54 1.73 1.07 1.59 -3.9 -2.8 2.4
GDP (per capita) 6,306 6,722 7,722 8,040 5,949 5,023 5,732
Nominal GDP, (USD mn) 62,929 65,611 75,389 78,594 56,503 47,836 54,381
Nominal GDP growth (annual 76.5 88.6 22.9 15.8 12.1 5.7 10.6 average), %
GDP: Final consumption expenditure, 39,417 39,698 48,603 51,961 40,003 35,479 37,829 (USD mn)
GDP: Gross fixed investment capital 22,372 21,342 27,376 26,004 16,091 12,192 13,559 formation, (USD mn)
Source: CEIC, World Bank
4.1 Industrial production
Belarus' industrial output growth crashed to 0.9% year-on-year in January , down from 5.7% in December and 9.7% y/y growth in January of 2018, according to the national statistics agency Belstat.
The statistics agency did not provide full sectoral data, so it is unclear to what factor the result is attributed. According to official data, the nation's output rose by 5.7% y/y in 2018 and 6.1% in 2017.
Belarus' GDP grew by 3% y/y in 2018, and by 2.4% y/y in 2017 after two years of recession. It contracted 3.9% y/y in 2015 following 1.6% y/y growth in 2014.
Recently, the Belarusian government was forced to revise downward its forecast for the country’s GDP growth in 2019 (from 4.5% y/y to 2.1% y/y). According to Belarusian officials, the new forecast takes into account recent changes in the external economic environment, including changes in oil prices and the economic situations of the country's major trading partners, specifically Russia, and the values of their currencies.
Specifically, the target scenario was initially based on an oil price assumption of $70 per barrel, but the assumption was eventually reduced to $65 per barrel.
Minsk's forecast also takes into account the negative consequences of Russia’s so-called tax manoeuvre on Belarus. The tax manoeuvre shifts the tax burden from export duty on oil and petroleum products to mineral extraction tax (MET) on oil production. It envisages a gradual reduction in the rate of
11 BELARUS Country Report March 2019 www.intellinews.com