Page 30 - bne Magazine Apri20

30 I Cover story bne April 2020
• State has contracted 2mn COVID-19 tests and medical equipment, while the private sector is donating to hospitals or helping doctors and patients.
ECONOMIC MEASURES
• Property tax payments delayed (3 months).
• Government to pay unemployment benefits to employees
in firms facing problems (75% of their gross wage;
emergency ordinance passed)
• Firms can contract interest-free bank loans guaranteed
by state (€1bn-3bn; passed under emergency ordinance;
technical details still expected, though).
• Firms and population can get 9-month grace period for
their bank loans (emergency ordinance to be endorsed on March 26).
ECONOMIC FORECASTS (where available)
• Industry to contract by double digit rate in Q2
• GDP growth will contract this year versus 3% growth
expected by independent analysts before COVID-19. • Interest rates to decline after central bank cut the
refinancing rate and promised liquidity.
• Budget deficit will exceed 5% of GDP this year, after it
was planned at 3.6% of GDP before COVID-19
• Public borrowing: with the public debt below 40% of
GDP, the government will borrow as much as possible – primarily from local market (particularly after the rate cut) but also when possible, from abroad.
Moldova
VIRUS UPDATE
• Number of cases as of March 25: 149
• Number of deaths as of March 25: 1
• Comment: Moldova sealed its borders at an early stage
of the coronavirus outbreak, but the lack of medical equipment and government’s lack of resources is expected to result in a large number of patients lacking medical care. The country will be in a state of emergency for a period of 60 days, until May 16. As of March 24, out of 109 infected subjects 43 were infected abroad before returning to the country. A large number of Moldovans are working abroad, in Russia and European Union (particularly Italy). Testing is scarce and, despite sealing borders at an early stage, the movement of people was not properly restricted until President Igor Dodon put the military on the streets.
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES
• Lockdown (Moldova's emergency situations committee decided to bar people older than 63 years from leaving their homes except for going to work,to buy medicines or food or walking their pets);
• Currently only car fuels stations, pharmacies and stations operate. Schools and kindergartens were closed, a special regime of entry and exit into the country, suspended air traffic, prohibited mass demonstrations, special working regime for economic agents and public institutions were established.
• Moldovan citizens who will not comply with the emergency regime will be held liable for civil contravention and criminal liability.
• Two regional hospitals were dedicated to COVID-19 patients on March 25, after all infected patients were sent to Chisinau.
ECONOMIC MEASURES
• Government supplemented the budget of public health system by less than €2mn, which shows the very limited financial resources. €50mn will be earmarked under a government revision, PM Ion Chicu promised.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS (where available)
• GDP expected to drop by 0%-5%
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