Page 32 - bne Magazine Apri20

32 I Cover story bne April 2020
Albania
VIRUS UPDATE
• Number of cases as of March 25: 146
• Number of deaths as of March 25: 5
• Comment: most of the cases have been registered in
the capital Tirana (72), 12 in Fier and fewer than 10 in other cities. 1,041 tests have been made until March 25. Deadline for electoral reforms has been postponed due to the crisis.
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES
• Lockdown: schools, bars, restaurants, mosques have been closed, all public gatherings and sports events are banned. Government imposes 18-hour curfew from 6 pm to 6 am and 10 am to 4 pm. Penalties imposed for not respecting the curfew. Sea, air and land movement to neighbouring countries have been suspended Tirana airports cancels all flights except Tirana-Istanbul.
ECONOMIC MEASURES
• $370mn economic package to offset the impact on companies, including $25mn for the health sector and $100mn to companies.
• Write-off of penalties for delayed payment of electricity bills. • Deadline increased for repayment of loans for
companies and households
• PM Edi Rama halved salaries of ministers, cabinet
members.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS (where available)
• GDP growth forecast cut from 4.1% to 2% in 2020 • Budget deficit expected to increase to 3.9% of GDP
from planned 2.2%
• Revenues seen falling by ALL20bn (€163mn)
• Public debt expected to increase to 68.8% of GDP by
4 pp from December.
Croatia
VIRUS UPDATE
• Number of cases as of March 25: 418
• Number of deaths as of March 25: 1
• Comment: Croatia was the first country in the Central
and Southeast Europe regions to report a coronavirus case, in the final week of February. The spread of infection was initially slow, but has accelerated. The largest number of infections in the capital Zagreb.
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES
• The government has already closed schools and universities, bars and restaurants, non-essential stores, and public transport has been scaled back. Croatians have been told to avoid public areas such as parks but full on restrictions on movement have not yet been introduced though are under discussion.
• Efforts to ensure social distancing were compromised by a series of earthquakes struck close to Zagreb on March 22, causing widespread damage to buildings. People fled into the streets and squares, and hospitals were evacuated.
ECONOMIC MEASURES
• A package worth almost HRK300bn (€4bn) has been approved. This is intended to support the economy through 63 measures that are primarily aimed at preserving jobs and ensuring payment of wages. Other measures specifically target Croatia's large tourism sector that accounts for around a quarter of GDP.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS (where available)
• Forecasts for this year are changing frequently and the full year performance will depend on how long the height of the pandemic and related lockdown lasts. Among some of the recent projections.
• Capital Economics estimates a 2.5% contraction in GDP in Q1.
• Raiffeisen forecasts a contraction of 4.8% for the full year — but ING’s full year prognosis is for 1.2% growth.
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