Page 34 - bne Magazine Apri20

34 I Cover story bne April 2020
Baltic states VIRUS UPDATE
• Estonia: number of cases as of March 26: 404, 1 death
• Latvia: number of cases as of March 26: 221, no deaths
• Lithuania: number of cases as of March 26: 225, 4 deaths
• Comment: As in most of Europe, COVID-19 cases are on
the rise in the Baltic states. Estonia reported the first death from the disease on March 25 while Lithuania saw three fatal cases during that day.
Latvia remains in relatively the best situation but its authorities are concerned about the first infection cases where the source cannot be tracked to a foreign visit or contact to a person that was known to carry the virus. “These patients could have become infected anywhere – in the minibus, in the store, they can't pinpoint any link to Covid-19 sufferers. This means that the virus is already spreading in Latvia," said Latvia’s Disease Prevention and Control Center (SPKC), according to LSM.
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES
• All three Baltic states have introduced travel bans
and restrictions on people’s movement. Suspected
cases must be in quarantine or self-isolation. Larger gatherings are banned and schools have been locked down. The authorities encourage social distancing. Large retail has been closed, although to varying degrees – only weekends in Latvia, for example.
ECONOMIC MEASURES
• Riga has said it will cover 75% of the costs of outbreak- induced sick leaves or workers’ downtime, or up to €700
per month. Latvia will also allow postponement of tax overdue for up to three years if the overdue taxes are an effect of the outbreak. The value of the measures is estimated at €2bn, roughly 6% of GDP.
• Estonia is rolling out a €2bn support programme – equal to 7% of the country’s GDP – including loans securitisation, sick leave compensation, and suspension of payments into the pension system.
• The Lithuanian government unveiled a €5bn – equivalent to 10% of GDP – support plan earlier this week, consisting of €500mn for health and public security systems, €500mn for jobs and personal income protection, as well as €500mn for maintaining business liquidity. €1bn will go to speeding up investment while the Bank of Lithuania is kick-starting measures like reduction of capital adequacy requirements for credit institutions worth €2.5bn. Lithuanian lawmakers also voted on March 17 to raise the government’s borrowing limit from €900mn to €5.4bn.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS (where available)
• According to a forecast by Swedbank – released in the early stages of the pandemic on March 11 – a likely scenario for the Baltic states will see their economic growth decline to 1.2% in Latvia, 1.4% in Estonia, and 1.6% in Lithuania.
• But the governments of the three countries have since said they must get ready for a recession. The Latvian government expects a GDP fall of 1.2% in 2020. Vilnius expects the economy to contract 1.3%-2.8% this year. Tallinn expects the Estonian economy might go into recession in 2020, although that is not an official forecast but speculation in the local media by Finance Minister Martin Helme.
Hungary
VIRUS UPDATE
• Number of cases as of March 24: 226
• Number of deaths as of March 24: 10
• Comment: Unofficial sources show the vast majority
of the cases are registered in the capital Budapest,
but the government does not provide a geographical breakdown of the infections. Stay-at-home orders were issued, but no curfews had been imposed. The first Covid-19 case was reported on March 4 of two Iranian
students. Officials expect the virus to spread in clusters. There has been a massive shortage of masks, sanitation products. The government was criticised for lack of wide-scale testing. Votes were short of extending the state of emergency and granting unlimited power to the government on March 23, but next week the bill will be passed as the ruling Fidesz has the required two-thirds majority.
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