Page 15 - RUSRptAug18

4.0 Real Economy
Russia - Main Macro Indicators
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Annual GDP (y/y)
4.26 3.41 1.34 0.64 -3.7 -0.5 1.5
GDP (per capita)
13,324 14,079 15,531 13,873 9,055 8,731 /
GDP: Final consumption expenditure, (local currency)
37,208,226 42,205,094 47,163,119 56,336,400 59,116,800 59,822,700 64,637,500
GDP: Gross fixed investment capital formation, (local currency)
13,982,500 15,223,900 15,077,000 16,436,100 16,812,800 18,112,400 19,944,000
GDP: Exports, (local currency)
16,940,900 18,413,100 18,936,600 21,464,200 23,606,500 22,124,300 17,083,600 (Jan-Sep)
GDP: Imports, (local currency)
12,164,400 13,848,100 15,014,100 16,296,400 17,095,200 17,685,800 13,716,100 (Jan-Sep)
Source: Rosstat, CEIC
4.1 Industrial production
Russia's industrial output growth in June 2018 slowed to 2.2% year-on-year from 3.7% y/y in May, the slowest growth since 2017, according to a report from statistics bureau Rosstat. This was below the consensus expectations for the month.
Although Russian industrial output and manufacturing in particular were recently beefed up by Rosstat's retroactive series revision, PMI indexes for May and June showed that the speed of recovery remains in question. Recent reports also suggested that the government is bracing for a slowdown in 2018-2019.
"After the Rosstat's revision of the industrial output data the share of the manufacturing sector in the total increased, which makes the output dynamics more volatile," BCS Global Markets commented on July 17, adding that "June turned out a weak month for non-commodity sectors, which points to the uncertain recovery of Russian economy."
The growth in manufacturing in the reporting month declined to 2.2% y/y from 5.4% y/y previously. "The breakdown shows a deceleration in the production of certain construction materials, metals (including aluminum), some food products, gasoline and ship fuel," Sberbank CIB commented.
Uralsib Capital argued on July 17 that higher volatility on the financial markets and uncertainty with global protectionist policies could have had a moderately negative influence on the investment activity of the Russian private sector.
At the same time mining and quarrying recovered in June, helped by the more upbeat oil output, which rose by 1.5% y/y, attributed by Sberbank to the amendments to the Opec+ deal allowing for an output increase.
"In our view, this deceleration in industrial output needs to be treated with a
15 RUSSIA Country Report August 2018 www.intellinews.com