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because income from its usual sources, including oil export sales, has diminished in the face of what President Hassan Rouhani has referred to as Washington’s “economic war”.
Iran’s industrial production fell 0.5% in the third quarter of 2018, down from 6.5% y/y in the previous quarter and 5.7% y/y in the first quarter, CEIC data showed. Major industrial production includes oil, petrochemical products and automobiles
4.2 Inflation 4.2.1 CPI dynamics
Iran CPI inflation at 48% in fourth Persian calendar month
Iran’s official consumer price index (CPI) inflation reached 40.4% in the 2019/2020 Persian calendar year’s fourth month (ended July 21) after rising 2.8% m/m, according to Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI) data.
The SCI also gave a latest point-to-point inflation reading of 48% y/y.
Iran is facing a perfect storm generated by a severe currency depreciation amid tightening sanctions levied by the US and stagnating wages. Many Iranians have cut down to essential purchases only, but prices have nevertheless continued to jump across the country. Rural areas are more heavily affected than urban localities.
Rural areas saw a CPI rate of 54.3% y/y in the fourth Persian month, compared with 46.9% y/y for urban areas.
For Iran as a whole, the price of meat rose 95% y/y.
Some international economists put Iran’s inflation rate a good deal higher than what is portrayed by the country’s official statisticians.
Iran’s economy is expected to shrink for a second consecutive year in 2019 while CPI inflation could hit 50% for the year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in late April.
14 IRAN Country Report September 2019 www.intellinews.com