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Opinion
April 13, 2017 www.intellinews.com I Page 19
ALACO DISPATCHES:
Nuclear deal looms large as Iran’s presidential election approaches
Yigal Chazan of Alaco
On the campaign trail, Donald Trump threatened to tear up the nuclear deal with Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA. Then in office, when wiser counsel prevailed, he vowed to “rigorously” enforce it. But now the accord – which led to the lifting of international sanctions against Iran in January 2016 in exchange for curbing its atomic energy programme – faces a new threat. There are concerns that a recently introduced Senate bill, the Iran Destabilising Activities Act of 2017, aimed at curbing Iran’s ballistic missile pro- gramme and other non-nuclear activities, could undermine the JCPOA.
The bipartisan sponsors of the bill maintain it will not interfere with the nuclear deal, but critics are unconvinced. They say it adds new conditions on sanctions that Washington is committed to lifting if Iran adheres to the accord, a move Iran could interpret as an attempt by the US to unilaterally change it. Also troubling, the detractors argue, is a provision that extends terrorism sanctions to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s elite security body. If implemented, the bill would not only put the JCPOA under strain but also place American forces in the region at risk of Iranian re- taliation, particularly if the US launches further air strikes against the Assad regime in Syria, which Iran supports.
The Senate bill has ratcheted up tensions between Iran and America, with a senior Tehran lawmaker warning that Iran would consider introducing legislation labelling the US military and the CIA terrorist groups. Amid fears that the proposed US
Ebrahim Raisi is an ally of the Supreme Leader, and is also viewed by some as his possible successor.
law could play into the hands of Iranian conserva- tives opposed to the JCPOA in the run up to the presidential election on May 19, the Republican co-sponsor of the bill, Bob Corker, announced on April 4 that it would not move forward for now. But while the postponement may deny Iranian hard- liners some useful ammunition, they look set to mount a serious challenge to reformist President Hassan Rouhani.
Registration for the ballot takes place this week, with Rouhani, a vocal advocate of the nuclear deal, expected to throw his hat into the ring. There has been much speculation over whether the conserva- tive camp – comprising the IRGC, military top brass and the clerical establishment led by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – would be able to set aside their differences to rally around a single candidate to challenge Rouhani, who won a landslide victory in 2013, in part because his rivals were split. A host of possible candidates have been touted in advance of the presidential ballot, but Ebrahim Raisi has emerged as arguably the strongest contender.
An ally of the Supreme Leader, Raisi, who on 9 April announced that he intended to run, is also viewed by some as his possible successor. While Raisi lacks political experience, crucially he appears to have the backing of Khamenei, who last year ap- pointed him custodian of a prominent charity that oversees the Islamic Republic’s holiest shrine.
In a surprise development, controversial former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad this week also applied to contest the election, despite the Su-