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Opinion
April 13, 2017 www.intellinews.com I Page 20
preme Leader advising him not to. Ahmadinejad, along with all the other candidates, will be vetted by the Guardian Council, half of whose members are appointed by Khamenei.
It is unclear whether conservatives will rally around Raisi if Ahmadinejad is allowed to enter the race, but they appear to be confident nonethe- less, empowered by the Trump administration’s antipathy towards Iran and the imposition of new sanctions in response to recent ballistic missile tests. US military action against Syria will also strengthen their hand. But arguably their best card is the limited economic impact of the nuclear deal.
Addressing the nation on Iranian New Year in March, Khamenei – a grudging backer of the JCPOA – criticised the government’s economic policy for the second time in as many months, ominously calling for a “resistance economy”, an apparent rebuff of Rouhani’s faltering attempts to open up the country to international investment.
Taking their lead from Khamenei, other hardlin- ers, who suffered a surprise defeat at the hands of reformists and moderate conservatives in parlia- mentary elections last year, have been speaking out against Rouhani and his government. Many con- servatives believe the president has failed to deliver the post-JCPOA economic dividend he promised.
In the face of the attacks, Rouhani has sought to defend his record, insisting that he has improved living standards by raising minimum wages, pen- sions and welfare support.
To his credit, Rouhani has steered the economy out of recession and brought down inflation. How- ever, unemployment remains high. While the nu- clear deal has allowed Iran to boost oil exports to pre-international sanctions levels, investors have been nervous of committing their funds because of remaining American sanctions and uncertainty over Trump’s intentions.
Most Iranians feel they haven’t benefited from the nuclear deal. Backing for the President has fallen below 50 per cent, a poll in January revealed.
But in an electoral boost for Rouhani, one of the country’s most respected conservatives, the par- liamentary speaker Ali Larijani, has given him his support.
The presidential race looks like it could be a close-run thing. A conservative victory will not necessarily sound the death knell for the JCPOA because, for all their criticism, hardliners are un- likely to want to see the economic gains reversed. But if relations with Washington continue to deteriorate, Rouhani’s political rivals will probably express ever louder condemnation of the accord, whether they triumph in the election or not, po- tentially putting it in jeopardy.
Yigal Chazan is an Associate at Alaco. Alaco Dispatches is the business intelligence consultancy’s take on events and developments shaping the
CIS region. Alaco’s latest guide to international sanctions is now available.