Page 25 - UKRRptMay20

average of a bit less than $300mn a month. In 2019 Ukraine had a large $5.6bn trade deficit with China and also runs trade deficits with Russia and the EU on the order of $2bn in 2019.
However, the “other” export category continues to grow as Ukrainian business seek out new markets and customers.
Overall Ukraine ran a roughly $9.5bn trade deficit although the situation is improving as the trade regime has clearly become more diversified over the last two years, where the EU and Russia dominated.
And in January the trade balance was almost flat with $4.2bn of exports versus $4bn of imports leaving a modest $138,150 surplus. However, by the end of February Ukraine was back in trade deficit of $422,704 after imports surged in the month to just over half a million dollars more than exports.
One of the effects of the current crisis is that imports should be reduced in March and April following the devaluation of the hryvnia and general insecurities which typically put the population into a savings mode.
Other aspects of the trade regime to note is Russia’s role has been greatly reduced as an export market but retains a residual 5.4% share of total exports. But it continues to play a much more important role as an import partner with a residual 9.5%. Although the two countries remain estranged, the ties between their economies are deep and not easily totally broken.
In February, goods exports rose 1.8% y/y to $4.0bn ​(vs. a 2.3% y/y increase in January). The growth was driven by exports of vegetable and animal fats and food oil (31.5% y/y), mineral products (11.3% y/y) and machinery (10.3% y/y). In addition, exports of ferrous metals inched up 0.8% y/y. At the same time, grain exports dropped 9.8% y/y.
Goods imports declined 4.3% y/y to $4.5bn in February (vs. a 1.4% y/y decline in January). In particular, imports of energy products dropped 12.2% y/y, vehicle imports plummeted 20.0% y/y, and machinery imports declined 9.3% y/y. Meanwhile, food imports surged 27.6% y/y.
Grain exports declined in February due to a high comparative base effect. At the same time, exports of ferrous metals switched to weak growth after a continuous decline, helping to maintain the overall growth of goods exports. The fall in goods imports deepened with declining machinery imports and accelerated decline in imports of vehicles.
25​ UKRAINE Country Report​ May 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com