Page 17 - bne IntelliNews Country Report: Ukraine Dec17

In Poland, where growth is seen rising to 4.1% this year, the pace will slow to 3.4% as the one-off impact of increased social payments fades. The near-term economic outlook has improved in Hungary on the back of cuts in the rates of corporate income tax and social security contributions as well as increased minimum wages. And labour shortages and the rising cost of labour in Czechia and Slovakia will also undermine growth in these countries in the medium term. All these nations are reaching a tipping point where they will have to reinvest themselves, ditching the low-cost, export-orientated models they have followed so far.
Southeastern Europe
In southeastern Europe, average growth is also expected to accelerate, reaching 3.6% in 2017 before moderating to 3.3% in 2018. The Greek economy has returned to growth in the first half of the year amid progress in reforms and rising confidence.
Growth in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus as a whole is expected to pick up from near-zero to close to 1.5% in 2017 as headwinds from low commodity prices and the earlier recession in Russia subside, although Azerbaijan’s economy is projected to remain in recession. A gradual recovery in the region is set to continue in 2018.
Growth in Turkey is projected to accelerate to 5.1% in 2017 on the back of government stimuli before slowing to 3.5% in 2018 as the fiscal impact wears off.
Economies in the southern and eastern Mediterranean (SEMED) region are expected to show growth of 3.8% in 2017 and 4% in 2018, supported by reform implementation and a continued recovery in the tourism sector, as well as export rebounds in Egypt and Jordan.
Morocco is the only country in the SEMED region that is expected to see a slowdown in growth during 2018, as the base effect from the agricultural
17 UKRAINE Country Report December 2017 www.intellinews.com