Page 21 - bne IntelliNews Country Report: Ukraine Dec17

3.0 Macro Economy
Business cycle indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017E
Real GDP, chg yoy
2.30%
-14.80%
4.10%
5.20%
0.20%
0.00%
-6.60%
-9.80%
2.30%
2.20%
Household consumption, chg yoy
11.80%
-14.90%
7.10%
15.70%
8.40%
6.90%
-8.30%
-20.70%
1.80%
4.50%
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
1.60%
-50.50%
3.90%
7.10%
5.00%
-6.70%
-24.00%
-9.20%
20.10%
15.00%
Industrial output, chg yoy
-5.20%
-21.90%
11.20%
8.00%
-0.70%
-4.30%
-10.10%
-13.00%
2.80%
0.50%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln
948
913
1,079
1,300
1,405
1,465
1,587
1,989
2,383
2,874
Nominal GDP, USD bln
180
117
136
163
176
183
134
91
93
108
GDP per capita, USD
3,891
2,550
2,972
3,580
3,865
4,030
3,117
2,134
2,193
2,546
CPI (eop)
22.30%
12.30%
9.10%
4.60%
-0.20%
0.50%
24.90%
43.30%
12.40%
12.70%
CPI average
25.20%
15.90%
9.40%
8.00%
0.60%
-0.30%
12.10%
48.70%
13.90%
14.20%
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
6.90%
9.60%
8.90%
8.70%
8.20%
7.80%
9.70%
9.50%
9.70%
9.90%
Source: SP Advisors
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Ukraine's real GDP grew 2.1% year-on-year in July-September, the Ukrstat state statistics agency in Kyiv reported on November 14.
Ukraine's real GDP grew 2.3% y/y across April-June , according to official data. In the first quarter, Ukraine's GDP grew by 2.5% y/y. Ukraine's economy grew 2.3% y/y in 2016 owing to booming investments in fixed assets (20.1% y/y growth) and reviving private consumption (1.8% y/y).
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised its economic forecast for this year upward from 1.6% y/y to 2.2% y/y saying that the nation's economic growth in 2017 will be stronger than expected. This was the result of a more favourable than expected effect from both internal and external factors on the economic performance of most sectors in the second and the third quarters of the year. High commodity prices, especially steel prices, added to revenues.
GDP growth is expected by the central bank to speed up to 3.2% and 3.5% in 2018 and 2019 respectively.
In April, the NBU revised its 2017 GDP forecast from 2.8% to 1.9% growth year-on-year due to expectations that the trade blockade in eastern Ukraine and the loss of the production facilities in the rebel-held areas in the
21 UKRAINE Country Report December 2017 www.intellinews.com