Page 24 - bne IntelliNews Country Report: Ukraine Dec17

4.0 Real Economy
Ukraine - GDP growth breakdown
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Annual GDP y/y growth
5.20
0.20
0.00
-6.80
-9.90
2.30
GDP per capita
3,569.76
3,855.42
4,029.72
3,082.46
2,125
2,186
Final consumption expenditure
1,094,231
1,221,163
1,337,048
1,410,177
1,715,636
2,018,854
Gross fixed investment capital formation
291,678
305,031
262,257
220,563
262,917
361,030
Exports
647,608
670,319
629,392
770,121
1,044,541
1,174,625
Imports
733,526
791,844
763,499
834,133
1,084,016
1,323,127
4.1 Industrial production
Ukraine's industrial production increased by 0.4% year-on-year in October following a 0.3% y/y decline in September, the state statistics service Ukrstat reported on November 22.
Chemicals (38.9% y/y growth vs 33.4% y/y in September), machinery (3.8% y/y growth vs 0.3% drop y/y) and metals (3.3% y/y growth vs 2.2% y/y) drove industry higher, while declines deepened for mining (-8.1% y/y vs -2.8% y/y in September) and utilities (-7.6% y/y vs -3.4% y/y).
"Ukraine's industrial performance remains erratic," Alexander Paraschiy at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital wrote in a research note on November 23.
According to the expert, metals grew mainly on the back of steel production (5.9% y/y growth in October) and metal semi-finished products rolled and forged (5.4% y/y), while other metal products were still in the red. Machinery grew predominantly due to more than a 400% surge in cargo railcar production. Mining is still reeling from the Donbas trade blockade imposed by the government in the spring as coal supplies plunged 25.4% y/y in October.
"Remarkably, oil extraction (-11.1% y/y) is sliding, as well as iron ore mining (-2.0% y/y) despite high resource prices," Paraschiy added. "This trend promises near zero industrial growth in 2017, or 0.4% y/y growth by our projections."
Concorde expects the situation will improve in 2018 as the fallout from the trade blockade wears off. The brokerage forecasts a 4.6% y/y industrial output increase in 2018.
24 UKRAINE Country Report December 2017 www.intellinews.com