Page 25 - bne IntelliNews Country Report: Ukraine Dec17

4.2 Inflation
Prices 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 EFFF
CPI headline 16.6 22.3 12.3 9.1 4.6 -0.2 0.5 24.9 43.3 12.4 8.2 9.4 9.4 (%YoY, eop)
CPI headline 12.8 25.3 16 9.4 8 0.6 -0.3 12.1 48.5 14.9 10.3 9.4 9.4 (%YoY, average)
PPI (%YoY, eop) 23.2 21.1 15.3 18.8 17.4 0.4 1.7 31.8 24 32.3 10.1 9 9
PPI (%YoY, 20.5 33.6 7.4 21.4 19.9 6 -0.1 17 36.5 18 20.8 10.6 9 average)
Source: ICU
I nflation slowed to 14.6% in September, but it remains well above the NBU’s 8% +/-2% target range for the end of 2017.
Growth in food prices remains the largest single factor behind the overshoot (food accounts for 40% of the consumer basket). That growth has been driven by two factors: poor weather conditions earlier in the year undercut the fruit and vegetable harvest, while growing exports of agricultural products have kept meat and dairy prices elevated.
The effect of these temporary factors will slowly fade until the next harvest, which will push CPI lower as long as the weather shock is not repeated.
Meanwhile a new risk to inflation is emerging – the government’s continued
25 UKRAINE Country Report December 2017 www.intellinews.com