Page 28 - bne IntelliNews Country Report: Ukraine Dec17

y/y growth for 2017 despite the recent slowdown.
4.4 Labour and income
4.4.1 Labour market, unemployment dynamics
Source: ICU
Unemployment rate (%)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 EFFF
6.4 6.4 8.8 8.1 7.9 7.5 7.2 9.3 9.1 9.3 8.9 8.6 8.3
4.4.2 Retail sector dynamics
Growth in retail trade turnover slowed to 4.2% y/y in October from 8.1% y/y in September, bringing 10M17 growth to 8.2% y/y (vs. 8.8% in 9M17). The October slowdown was unexpected, coming despite a positive calendar effect (+1 workday vs. October 2016) and improved consumer confidence. The consumer confidence index compiled by GfK-Ukraine rose to 62.6 in October (on 0-200 scale), the highest level since July 2014. Real salaries increased 17.3% y/y in September (in line with July and August dynamics but a touch slower than +20% in 1H17). This year’s salary growth was fueled by the doubling of the official minimum salary, which boosted employee compensations in the public sector as well as at a number of private sector enterprises. Also pushing private sector salaries higher was the labor migration, which curbed domestic supply of qualified workers. That said, we think the latest retail turnover weakness was temporary and we continue to expect further expansion in private consumption, supporting economic growth.
Retail trade turnover rose by 8.1% y/y in September, slowing from 9.8% y/y
28 UKRAINE Country Report December 2017 www.intellinews.com