Page 30 - bne IntelliNews Country Report: Ukraine Dec17

5.0 External Sector & Trade
Balance of payments
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017E
Current account balance, USD bln
-12.8
-1.7
-3
-10.2
-14.3
-16.5
-4.6
-0.2
-3.5
-3.8
% GDP
-7.10%
-1.50%
-2.20%
-6.30%
-8.10%
-9.00%
-3.40%
-0.20%
-3.70%
-3.50%
Financial account balance, USD bln
9.7
-12
8
7.8
10.1
18.6
-9.1
0.6
4.7
6.1
% GDP
5.40%
-10.20%
5.90%
4.80%
5.80%
10.10%
-6.80%
0.60%
5.00%
5.60%
FDI net, USD bln
9.9
4.7
5.8
7
7.2
4.1
0.3
3
3.3
2.7
% of GDP
5.50%
4.00%
4.20%
4.30%
4.10%
2.20%
0.20%
3.30%
3.50%
2.50%
Gross NBU reserves (eop), USD bln
31.5
26.5
34.6
31.8
24.5
20.4
7.5
13.3
15.5
18.8
Source: SP Advisors
5.1 External sector overview
Ukraine's goods trade deficit reached $3.9bn in 9M17 compared to $1.9bn a year ago, the State Statistics Service reported on November 14.
Total imports grew 27.3% y/y, while exports increased 21.1% y/y in 9M17.
Goods exports grew on the back of mineral products (53% y/y), food oils (27% y/y), food (25% y/y), metals (17% y/y), grains (15% y/y), and machinery (14% y/y).
Goods imports swelled owing to energy (58% y/y), vehicle's (51% y/y), metals (29% y/y), machinery (25% y/y) and chemicals (14% y/y).
Non-energy imports grew 19.7% y/y in 9M17, slightly accelerating from 19.3% y/y growth in 8M17. Exports to the EU gained momentum at 29.1% y/y growth in 9M17 (compared to 27.9% y/y growth in 8M17).
Exports to the CIS countries kept slowing, having grown 17.1% y/y in 9M17 compared to 18.8% y/y in 8M17.
The goods trade deficit widened as we expected, while the recent customs statistics are revealing that the deficit will accelerate further. For 10M17, customs data report a $4.7bn deficit compared to a $2.1bn deficit a year ago. This figure already exceeds our initial forecast for a $4.4bn trade deficit for the total year (according to UkrStat methodology). Against this backdrop, we are revising our 2017 trade deficit estimate to $5.4bn by the year end.
Real exports will be virtually unchanged y/y in 2017, but may contribute to economic growth next year. SP Advisors forecast real GDP growing 2.2% this year and accelerating to 3.5%-4.0% in 2018 as the post-crisis wounds heal.
30 UKRAINE Country Report December 2017 www.intellinews.com