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Russian beer production increased 3.3% y/y in 2020 to 795mn decalitres, according to the Russian Statistics Service. Analysts estimate a comparable increase in retail sales for 2020F. The reported production figures imply a decent performance for 2020, as some ontrade consumption switched to the at home channel on a more regular basis, with lower outbound tourism was lower and a warm summer being among the prime tailwinds. The Russian beer market is consolidated, with the top three players holding some 70% and Anadolu Efes occupying the leading position (about 30%). In 2020, Russia accounted for more than 60% of Anadolu Efes’ beer volumes, with the company outperforming the market on a mid single-digit rise. In the company's domestic market (Turkey), volumes remained muted, losing 14% y/y in 2020, implying eight years of corrections. In the near term, the key uncertainties for the operating results are the restrictions affecting on-trade consumption and the overall consumption backdrop, while the international division and the Russian beer business have shown robust resilience during these challenging times, in our view. In the last three months, Anadolu Efes’ shares have gained 26% and now trade at 2021F EV/EBITDA of 6.6x.
9.1.6 Agriculture sector news
113 RUSSIA Country Report February 2021 www.intellinews.com
Russia’s grain harvest may fall to 131mn tonnes in 2021 from 133mn tonnes, Deputy Prime Minister Viktoria Abramchenko said in an interview to
