Page 6 - TURKRptJul19

2.0 Politics
2.1 Imamoglu earthquake — Has Erdogan thrown in the
towel?
Don’t waste too much time on this question. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not thrown in the towel. This conjuror, this polariser, who has made life in Turkey miserable for so many Turks since 2002—first as PM, then as president, and next as the nearly all-powerful executive president—will be back for another round.
The June 23 Istanbul revote has delivered an earthquake in Turkish politics— Ekrem Imamoglu, candidate for the main opposition party, has recorded a stunning victory over the candidate backed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Binali Yildirim. Erdogan has conceded defeat. Imamoglu had taken 54.21% of the vote for mayor compared to 44.99% for Binali Yildirim, giving him a lead of around 775,000 votes. Turnout was 84.44%.
The revote was called by Turkey’s election watchdog after the original election, held during the country’s March 31 polls, produced a narrow victory for the secular Republican People's Party (CHP) candidate Imamoglu by 48.8% to 48.6% (with an official margin of around 13,000 votes). The result was disputed by Yildirim, Erdogan and their populist Justice and Development Party (AKP) on the basis of claimed “irregularities”.
When Erdogan loses an election, he typically appears lost for around a week but subsequently reappears with some new plans. After Erdogan’s candidate, ex-PM Binali Yildirim, lost the original Istanbul mayoral election on March 31, the populist authoritarian was not seen for roughly a week, but then, in an airport press conference which he gave while on his way to see Uncle Vladimir Putin he launched the push for an Istanbul re-vote (the election watchdog met his wishes, agreeing there were “irregularities” that invalidated Imamoglu’s shock victory). On the evening of June 23, following Imamoglu’s astonishing trouncing of Yildirim in the re-run election, Erdogan cancelled his scheduled press call. He was seen around lunchtime casting his vote at a polling station together with Turkey’s first lady and his son-in-law and finance minister Berat Albayrak. In the wake of this second humiliation, Erdogan tweeted three times. In the first tweet, he congratulated Imamoglu in very plain fashion, and indirectly said he would not challenge the result this time around. In the second tweet, Erdogan pledged support to the People’s Alliance made up of his Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the ultra-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) led by Devlet Bahceli. He also served a reminder that he was pursuing his 2023 centenary of the republic goals. He indirectly said that his alliance with junior partner MHP still endured and that he still has a mandate to rule Turkey until the scheduled elections four years from now. In the third tweet, Erdogan pointed to the G20 summit to be held at the end of this month in Osaka, where he aims to head off any threat of US sanctions by shooting the breeze with his big American pal, Donald Trump.
Who's to pay the price for the Istanbul double humiliation? It seems the bill will be delivered to the AKP’s provincial head in Istanbul. There are also rumours of a cabinet reshuffle ahead but it will only amount to a relatively meaningless shifting of chairs to deceive foreign investors that real reform is in the pipeline, since under Erdogan ministers in the executive presidential system are mere secretaries. Even if Erdogan gives Albayrak the heave-ho, he will continue to rule the country based on his revolutionary economy theories. Turks also want Interior Minister Suleyman Soysuz to be axed. If that happens it could signal that Erdogan is going for a more humanistic rhetoric by eliminating his number one hitman.
Early elections. Analysts should now be pondering when early elections will be called and who will trigger the polls. Bahceli’s ‘Turkish-type presidential
6 TURKEY Country Report July 2019 www.intellinews.com