Page 21 - UKRRptJun19

Business cycle indicators
Real GDP , chg yoy
2008 2009
2.3% -14.8%
2010 2011 2012
4.1% 5.2% 0.2% 7.1% 15.7% 8.4%
3.9% 7.1% 5.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016
0.0% -6.6% -9.8% 2.3% 6.9% -8.3% -20.7% 1.8%
-6.7% -24.0% -9.2% 20.1%
2017
Householdconsumption, 11.8% -14.9% chg yoy
2.5% 3.3%
7.8% 8.9%
2.70% 4.90%
7.00% 2.50% 4,021 146 3,336 7.10% 8.20%
8.00%
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
Industrial output, chg yoy Nominal GDP , UAH bln Nominal GDP, USD bln GDP per capita, USD CPI(eop)
CPIaverage
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
Source: SP Advisors
1.6%
-5.2% 948 180 3,891
-50.5%
-21.9% 913 117 2,550
11.2% 8.0% 1,079 1,300 136 163 2,972 3,580
-0.7% 1,405 176 3,865
18.2% 14.3% -4.3% -10.1% -13.0% 2.8% 0.4% 1.1%
1,465 1,587 1,989 2,383 2,983 3,559 183 134 91 93 112 131 4,030 3,117 2,134 2,193 2,638 3,077 0.5% 24.9% 43.3% 12.4% 13.7% 9.8%
-0.3% 12.1% 48.7% 13.9% 14.4% 10.90%
More than 54% of Ukrainians positively assess the creation of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) and it receiving the tomos on autocephaly. This is based on results of a survey, titled "Confessional structure of the population of Ukraine and creation of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church: May 2019," conducted by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). "Some 54.2% of respondents are positive about the creation of the OCU and it receiving the tomos on autocephaly. A neutral position is expressed by 31.2%, while 10.9% expressed a negative attitude. Some 3.6% found it difficult to answer the question, Deputy Director of KIIS Anton Hrushetsky said.
3.0 Macro Economy
22.3% 12.3% 9.1% 4.6% -0.2% 25.2% 15.9% 9.4% 8.0% 0.6% 6.9% 9.6% 8.9% 8.7% 8.2%
7.8% 9.7% 9.5%
9.7%
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
The growth of Ukraine’s real GDP in the first quarter of 2019 slowed to 2.2% compared to the same period last year, against 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 3.3% in 2018 as a whole, according to preliminary data posted by the State Statistics Service.
According to the report, real GDP in January-March of this year (taking into account the seasonal factor) rose by 0.2%mpared with the previous quarter.
In early May, the National Bank estimated GDP growth in the first quarter of this year at 2.4%, while the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade at 2.2%.
At the end of April, the NBU affirmed the forecast of GDP growth for 2019- 2021. According to its expectations, this year it will slow down to 2.5%, and in
21 UKRAINE Country Report June 2019 www.intellinews.com
9.9% 9.1%
2018E 2019E