Page 22 - UKRRptJun19

2020-2021 it will accelerate to 2.9% and 3.7%, respectively.
At the beginning of April of this year, the Ministry of Finance announced that the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade had worsened the forecast of Ukraine’s GDP growth to 2.8% in 2019, while the national budget for this year was approved on the basis of the forecast of economic growth by 3%.
President-elect Zelenskiy will inherit an economy with its macro indicators in best shape in years, writes Timothy Ash. “Ukraine now runs modest twin deficits, at 2-3% of GDP, public debt is on a declining path, sub- 60% now, while the [central bank] has $20bn in reserves, above the three month import cover minimum,” Ash writes from London. “Foreigners seem happy to invest into domestic debt, given high yields, moderating inflation, hawkish NBU, and reasonably stable hryvnia.” Efforts by Zelenskiy backer Igor Kolomoisky to win back PrivatBank, “is still the number one issue for the incoming president Zelenskiy in the sphere of the economy and relations with the international financial institutions.”
With the record harvest pushed through the economy, Ukraine’s real GDP growth slowed to 2.4% in Q1 2019, compared to 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2018. Metals, the largest export after agriculture and labour, was ‘close to zero’ due to planned repairs at major mines and steelmakers, reported the National Bank of Ukraine. Retail, travel and construction were up, fuelled partly by labour remittances. The central bank predicts the economy will grow by 2.5% this year, down from 3.3% last year.
3.2 Macro outlook
Ukraine's Central Bank forecasts economic growth will decelerate temporarily in 2019 to 2.9%. The harvest of grain and oilseeds is expected to decline compared to the 2018 record. Ukraine's Central Bank forecasts that the country's GDP growth will slow to 2.5% in 2019, only to speed up again starting next year: to 2.9% and 3.7% in 2020 and 2021, respectively. "The causes of the 2019 economic slowdown include weaker growth in the world
22 UKRAINE Country Report June 2019 www.intellinews.com