Page 43 - UKRRptJun19

6.2 Debt
DEBT 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E*
External debt (US$bn, 80 101.7 103.4 117.3 126.2 134.6 142.1 126.3 118.7 113.6 124.2 eop)
External debt (% of 55.8 55.3 91 86.1 77.4 77.3 79.1 96.2 130.4 121.7 126.6 ann'd GDP, eop)
FX reserves (US$bn, 32.5 31.5 26.5 34.6 31.8 24.5 20.4 7.5 12.4 11.9 15.6 eop)
FX reserves (% of 22.6 17.2 23.3 25.4 19.5 14.1 11.4 5.7 13.6 12.8 13.3 ann'd GDP, eop)
External debt / FX 2.5 3.2 3.9 3.4 4 5.5 7 17.7 9.6 9.5 8.0 reserves (x, eop)
FX reserves imports cov (months)
5.6
3.9
5.9
6
4.1
2.9
2.5
1.3
3.3
3.6
3.3
Source: ICU
Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt increased 1.3% m/m to $79.8bn in April, the Finance Ministry reported on May 27. Internal debt increased 4.1% m/m to $29.6bn. External debt dipped 0.2% m/m to $50.2bn. In UAH terms, overall state debt decreased 1.0% m/m in April. Local bonds, coupled with the hryvnia strengthening during the month, were the main drivers for the state debt increase in US dollars. In April, MinFin attracted UAH33.9bn, $416.6mn and €2.6mn. For repayments, UAH34.8bn was scheduled, including $693.2mn in local Eurobonds. External debt remained almost unchanged in $ dollars but dropped 2.5% m/m in UAH terms in line with the hryvnia strengthening 2.6% in April. New external loans from IFIs are an option for the new government to emerge after early parliamentary elections in July. “We remain optimistic and anticipate IMF cooperation will continue. We project state and state-guaranteed debt will increase to $80.8bn in 2019, or around 62% of GDP (vs. $70.3bn, or 60.9% of GDP in 2018),” Concorde Capital said in a note.
7.0 FX
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will increase the limit on dividend repatriation to €12mn from €7mn per month per company, the regulator said in a statement on May 7.
The decision takes effect on May 8. "The raised limit of €12mn indeed satisfies the needs of all companies with foreign investments operating in Ukraine," the NBU's deputy governor Oleh Churiy believes. "However, we realise that this limit is a certain barrier for new investors, and our goal is to lift the limit."
43 UKRAINE Country Report June 2019 www.intellinews.com