Page 9 - GLNG Week 37

GLNG COMMENTARY GLNG

BP sets out LNG’s role

in energy outlook

BP has published its Energy Outlook 2020, which sees

LNG trade growing significantly in at least the medium

term in two out of three scenarios

ENERGY LONDON-LISTED BP published its Energy according to BP’s own estimates. Under the rapid
TRANSITION Outlook 2020 on September 14, outlining three scenario, demand will peak in the mid-2030s
scenarios for global energy demand. The first, but will still be around the same level in 2050
WHAT: business-as-usual, assumes that trends in gov- as in 2018. But according to the net-zero case,
BP projects that ernment policies, technologies and societal demand will peak as soon as the mid-2020s and
LNG trade will grow preferences continue in the way they have done drop by a third by 2050.
significantly in at least in the recent past. The second, rapid, assumes Gas has two main roles in the energy tran-
the medium term. a significant increase in carbon prices and the sition, BP said. First, it can displace coal in
introduction of other aggressive policies to lower fast-growing, developing economies where
WHY: emissions. renewables cannot be deployed sufficiently
Even under a rapid The third and final one, net zero, assumes quickly; second, it can be combined with car-
decarbonisation these policies are introduced but also supported bon, capture and storage (CCS) to produce near
scenario, LNG is expected by significant shifts in societal and consumer zero-carbon energy. The rapid and net-zero sce-
to be the main source behaviour and preferences. This will result in narios see gas combined with CCS accounting
of incremental supply carbon emissions dropping by over 95% by 2050, between 8 and 10% of primary energy in three
as developing countries in line with efforts to limit global temperature decades’ time.
switch from coal to gas. rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Even in the business-as-usual case, BP LNG’s role
WHAT NEXT: expects oil demand to reach a plateau in the early LNG has a clear role to play in the business-as-
BP has not set out how 2020s. Under the two other scenarios consump- usual and rapid scenarios. However, BP did not
LNG would fit into its tion will never again reach the pre-pandemic explicitly set out how LNG would fit into the
third, net zero, scenario, level of just above 100mn barrels per day (bpd). scenario where net zero emissions would be
but it would require The outlook for gas is markedly better, how- achieved by 2050. But this scenario requires a
a sharp drop in gas ever, supported “by broad-based demand and sharp drop in industrial and conventional gas
consumption. the increasing availability of global supplies,” BP consumption, with it only being partly offset
said. by using gas burn to produce blue hydrogen –
Under the business-as-usual case, BP pre- which is extracted from natural gas while the
dicts it to surge by a third over the next three displaced carbon from the process is captured
decades, from 3.93 trillion cubic metres last year, and stored.

Week 37 18•September•2020 www. NEWSBASE .com P9