Page 50 - bne magazine March 2017 issue

50 I Southeast Europe bne March 2017
Gulen, the US-based cleric blamed by the government for last year’s failed putsch, might, with the help of foreign powers, be plotting an earthquake to damage the Turkish economy. Melih Gokcek told Reuters that investigations needed to be carried out on a “seismic vessel” seen in the vicinity of the Aegean coastal town of Canakkale on the Darda- nelles when a small earthquake struck.
“No matter what they say, I’m still wor- ried about the possibility of an artificial earthquake,” the mayor tweeted, claim- ing that the “Gulenist Terrorist Organisa- tion” had planned an earthquake before.
For his part, Erdogan has presented recent economic ills – including the depreciating lira, high inflation and the downgrade to junk of Turkey’s last remaining investment grade rating
by Fitch Ratings – as part of a foreign conspiracy. February 7 also saw the president keep up his populist campaign against the high interest rates that orthodox economic theory says are needed to combat climbing consumer prices. In a public speech in Ankara, calling for a loosening of the credit taps, he declared: “I have a problem with
the interest rate policy implemented in my country. In fact, this policy is an instrument of exploitation.”
Four days earlier, Erdogan turned up in the southern city of Mersin for the open- ing of a new hospital. The event was seen as the start of his referendum campaign. “In this hospital, you will remember the feeling of being a human being and be able to say, ‘my state is taking care of me’,” Erdogan told a crowd, according
to Bloomberg, adding: “Are we ready to say ‘yes’ at the ballot box in April?”
Those voters unpersuaded as yet by the need for an era-shifting constitutional change might perhaps be convinced by the economic momentum and “feelgood factor” that could be generated by a plan to end the government’s struggles in financing a series of “mega” infrastruc- ture projects. To raise the required loans, the council of ministers on February 5 issued a decree to transfer the govern- ment’s holdings in several large firms
to the country’s sovereign wealth fund
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(SWF). The supercharged fund is to use its stakes in major enterprises such as the bank Ziraat, natural gas distribution firm BOTAS, the Istanbul stock exchange and Turk Telekom as collateral in secur- ing financing for projects such as road and rail links and suspension bridg-
es. Foreign banking and SWF expertise may be brought in.
Whatever grandiose state investments start to hog the headlines, the president will not be counting on much support from those hurt by the state’s seizing of numerous allegedly “Gulenist” busi- nesses during the purges or from the
In a February 3 article, “Can ‘Constitu- tional Engineering’ Once Again Succeed in Pacifying Turkey?”, published by
the Turkey Analyst (of which he is the editor), Karaveli described how the pres- idential system is supposed to appeal
to swathes of voters because it would subdue the Kurdish challenge.
It might appear that the combined elec- toral weight of the nationalist-conserva- tive bloc should make the referendum result a foregone conclusion, he says, with the AKP and MHP representing over 60% of the electorate in the last general election results. But substantial defec-
“Are we ready to say ‘yes’ at the ballot box in April?”
Kurds. Turkey’s Cumhuriyet newspaper on February 3 cited a joint statement from the country’s five main Kurdish groups, including the HDP and DBP, in which they said they were urging a “no” vote. Erdogan is, however, undertaking a “hard yards” tour of 40 provinces that make up around half of Turkey to drum up support from all possible quarters
for his vision of a strong, concentrated executive branch of government. It is urgently needed, he asserts, to fight effi- ciently against the manifold economic and security threats presently bedevil- ling the nation, including separatist Kurdish and Islamic State terrorism.
Not a done deal
One analyst who does not believe the referendum outcome is yet a done deal is Halil Karaveli, a senior fellow at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center, where he heads the Turkey Initiative.
tions can be anticipated because “the AKP risks alienating its Kurdish base with its alliance with the Turkish ultra-nationalist MHP”, while on the other hand “secu- larist-nationalist, Kemalist MHP voters will be reluctant to support amendments that concentrate all power in the hands of President Erdogan”.
Karaveli concludes: “The presidential system that is now being proposed may have all the appearances of strength, but it would crucially lack the ideological underpinning needed to similarly pacify and produce the consent of those whose claims it is ultimately intended to neu- tralise. Indeed, the conservative nation- alism of the AKP-MHP alliance could fall short of mobilising a majority in favour of the constitutional amendments. It may be that Turkey can become neither a democracy nor put in place stable authoritarian rule because of its ethnic fissures.”
Find more Southeast Europe content at www.bne.eu/southeast-europe
Selected headlines from past month:
· Romania’s ruling PSD to relax rules for amending constitution · Albanian opposition leader charged with inciting violence
· Bulgarian prosecutors charge 18 in Corpbank investigation
· SEE banking markets are ripe for consolidation