Page 20 - UKRRptJun20

3.0​ ​Macro Economy
Business cycle indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Real GDP, chg yoy
2.3%
-14.8%
4.1%
5.2%
0.2%
0.0%
-6.6%
-9.8%
2.3%
2.5%
3.3%
2.70%
Household consumption, chg yoy
11.8%
-14.9%
7.1%
15.7%
8.4%
6.9%
-8.3%
-20.7%
1.8%
7.8%
8.9%
4.90%
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
1.6%
-50.5%
3.9%
7.1%
5.0%
-6.7%
-24.0%
-9.2%
20.1%
18.2%
14.3%
7.00%
Industrial output, chg yoy
-5.2%
-21.9%
11.2%
8.0%
-0.7%
-4.3%
-10.1%
-13.0%
2.8%
0.4%
1.1%
2.50%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln
948
913
1,079
1,300
1,405
1,465
1,587
1,989
2,383
2,983
3,559
4,021
Nominal GDP, USD bln
180
117
136
163
176
183
134
91
93
112
131
146
GDP per capita, USD
3,891
2,550
2,972
3,580
3,865
4,030
3,117
2,134
2,193
2,638
3,077
3,336
CPI (eop)
22.3%
12.3%
9.1%
4.6%
-0.2%
0.5%
24.9%
43.3%
12.4%
13.7%
9.8%
7.10%
CPI average
25.2%
15.9%
9.4%
8.0%
0.6%
-0.3%
12.1%
48.7%
13.9%
14.4%
10.90 %
8.20%
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
6.9%
9.6%
8.9%
8.7%
8.2%
7.8%
9.7%
9.5%
9.7%
9.9%
9.1%
8.00%
Source: SP Advisors
3.1 ​Macroeconomic overview
Ukraine's economy shrank by 12% in April after a 4.4% decrease in March marking the potential bottom of the pandemic crisis. ​Passenger transportation plummeted; industrial production, and trade and cargo transportation accelerated their decline, while agriculture remained resilient.
Ukraine’s GDP fell in the first quarter by 1.5% y/y, reports the State Statistics Service​. This is slightly worse than the Economy Ministry’s forecast last week of a 1.2% fall. The National Bank of Ukraine says the current quarter will be the worst of the year - a 11.3% drop. The central bank then forecasts: Q3 - 5.3%; Q4 - 2.3%; all of 2020 - 5%.
The fall in real gross domestic product of Ukraine (GDP) in the second quarter of this year will accelerate to 11.3% from 0.5% in the first quarter​, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicts in an updated inflation report.
"The Ukrainian economy will experience the greatest shock in the second quarter of 2020. The unemployment rate will rise to about 12% in seasonally adjusted terms, and wage growth will stop," the document says.
According to the bank, in the third quarter of this year, the economic decline will slow down to 5.3%, and in the fourth quarter to 2.3%, as a result of, which, over the whole year, GDP will decrease by 5%.
"The gradual lifting of quarantine will lead to the restoration of the Ukrainian economy in the second half of 2020. This will also be facilitated by soft fiscal and monetary policies. The increase in government budgetary spending to overcome the crisis and the National Bank's measures to maintain the banking system will reduce the negative impact of the pandemic on the economy," the regulator said.
20​ UKRAINE Country Report​ June 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com