Page 21 - UKRRptJun20

The NBU expects a slight contraction in the economy in the first quarter of next year, by 0.3%.​ However, in the second quarter, due to the low assessment base, according to its forecast, GDP will jump immediately by 11.3%. The subsequent growth of the economy by 4.6% and 2.1% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively, will lead to a general growth rate of 4.3% for 2021.
The central bank indicates that both the decline and recovery will be uneven in the types of economic activity. In particular, from the introduction of quarantine restrictions, the services sector, retail, and transport will lose more. After quarantine is over, these sectors will partially recover, but will still suffer from a slow recovery in population incomes. Tourism and related aviation services, according to the NBU, will fully resume only next year.
3.2 ​Macro outlook
Ukraine’s economy will shrink by 10.9% during the second quarter​, according to Reuters monthly poll of 11 analysts released on May 6.
This consensus number tracks the central bank forecast of an 11% GDP drop for April-June. The Reuters analysts estimated that the economy shrank in Q1 by 1%. The first half of 2020 is shaping up as the worst in five years. In the bleak war months of 2015, the GDP fell 16% in Q1 and by 14% in Q2.
The Ukrainian economy will contract this year by 4.5% as a result of global coronavirus-related shocks​, according to new macroeconomic survey by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. But growth will
21​ UKRAINE Country Report​ June 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com