Page 51 - bne_Magazine_July_2017

bne July 2017 Eurasia I 51
The region also suffered an attack on a mosque in 2010 that claimed 39 lives.
But most analysts pondering terrorism in Iran think back to the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK, or the People's Mujahedin of Iran), an Iranian political-militant organisation which called for a Marxist outcome to the ousting of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in 1979 and opposes the Islamic Republic in its current form. Now based in exile in Albania, the MEK waged a guerrilla bombing campaign against the forces of revolutionary father Khomeini, killing notables such as the second president of the Islamic Republic Mohammad-
Ali Rajai and former PM Ali Rajaei in 1981. The judiciary ultimately had 30,000 MEK members executed, while many of those not detained fled to Iraq. In more recent times, the MEK
is said to have been utilised by Israeli intelligence for the assassination
of Iranian nuclear scientists.
The red mist quickly descended on the IRGC. It wasted no time in blasting Riyadh for supporting IS in the attacks in Tehran and vowing revenge. Tying the terrorism to Trump’s May visit
to Saudi Arabia, during which the American commander in-chief struck massive deals to deliver weapons
to the Saudis, the Guards put out a statement which, according to semi- official Fars news agency, read: "World public opinion, especially in Iran,
sees the fact that this terrorist act was perpetrated soon after the meeting of the US president with the heads of one of the reactionary regional states that has always supported ... terrorists as very meaningful... It shows that they are involved in this savage action.”
The attacks came at a very sensitive time for the IRGC, seen as the protectors of the nation. The “Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution”, which is battling IS outside Iran by arming and supporting militia who are trying to preserve Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime and kick the Islamist terrorists out of Iraq, was rattled in mid-May by the thumping loss hardline candidate Ebrahim Raisi suffered at the hands of centrist President Hassan Rouhani.
Moreover, it is presently upping its state of readiness given the Qatar crisis. Tiny gas-rich peninsular Qatar goes against the grain by being a Gulf State that stays on relatively friendly terms with Tehran, but currently faces a land, sea and air blockade being
led by Riyadh over a complicated dispute that again cuts into exactly who is funding whom in terrorism.
With the outside world praying nobody, including the IRGC, makes a rash move that could see the volatile Middle East hostilities spiral out of control, Iran in some ways has every reason to play down the attack. National prestige was partly shielded by very slender state
TV coverage of the terrorist incidents, while Tehran’s determination to “Keep calm and carry on” – vital at a time when the country is at a crossroads in attracting post-nuclear sanctions era foreign investors – was evidenced by remarks from speaker of the Iranian parliament Ali Larijani. He referred to the events as a "minor issue,” adding in a statement: "As you know, some coward terrorists infiltrated a building ... but they were seriously confronted."
Not long after, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei struck a similarly defiant tone, saying: "These fireworks have no effect on Iran. They will soon be eliminated... They are too small to affect the will of the Iranian nation and its officials."
Gun ownership is heavily controlled in Iran, the people of Tehran are known
as easygoing and the capital is far from an edgy environment when it comes
to the chance of bullets flying around. The government will be anxious to keep it that way. Security will inevitably be tightened to ensure the capital or country does not suffer a series of headline-
grabbing terrorist strikes that could make investors or tourists – the tourism industry is another of Iran’s greatly untapped industries – think twice.
Nevertheless, given Trump’s unremitting hostility – hours elapsed before a statement of condolence was put out
by the president’s administration and Trump later qualified the expressed sympathy by stating that "We underscore that states that sponsor terrorism risk falling victim to the evil they promote" – and some unusually aggressive sabre-rattling by the Saudis in recent weeks, there is a genuine heightening of nervousness among Iranians who worry that things could take another turn for the worse.
Assessing the attacks mounted by
the Kalashnikov-wielding terrorists, Mokhtar Awad, a research fellow in the Program on Extremism at George Washington University, told the New York Times that they were an attempt by IS to finally address “one of the biggest talking points used against it in jihadi circles”, namely its perceived inability to attack Iran. “They have been ridiculed for this for a long time,” Awad said. “This is going to help them reach out to a broader population of Salafis and jihadis who will now see that the Islamic State is genuinely fighting all the enemies of Islam.”
On winning re-election on May 19, President Rouhani declared that Iranians had chosen "the path of interaction with the world, away from violence and extremism". As Trita
Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council, said in a June 7 statement on the attacks: “The last thing Iran needs now – after Iranians voted for openness – is an excuse for hardliners to securitise the internal atmosphere.”
Find more Eurasia content at www.bne.eu/eurasia
Selected headlines from past month:
· Uzbekistan’s reform agenda in question after Azimov’s demotion
· Georgia struggles to balance regional realpolitik with EU ambitions · Kazakhstan’s KKB not expected to follow IBA into the abyss
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