Page 52 - bne_Magazine_July_2017

52 Opinion bne July 2017
Once people begin to treat the tsar’s position as something that another could fill, then the power quickly can wane.
STOLYPIN: Life after Putin becomes debatable Mark Galeotti of the Institute of International Relations Prague
On June 15 Vladimir Putin held one of his trademark ‘Direct Line’ television spectaculars, an annual mara- thon at which he answers (carefully-curated) questions from the Russian public. In part this is a symbolic act, the tsar speaking directly to his people, and in part an unashamedly political one, a reaffirmation of his effortless control of the system. It comes at a time when, despite Alexei Navalny’s anti- corruption campaign and rumblings from the impoverished masses, he seems unassailable as he prepares for another coronation in the 2018 presidential elections. So why is there now so much more talk about life after Putin?
The media is sidling closer to this once-taboo topic, the ques- tion of who could replace the irreplaceable man now cloaked in discussion of who his next prime minister will be, or who will shape his post-2018 administration.
But most striking, if wholly subjective, were my own experi- ences recently in Moscow, where the kind of conversations once had around the kitchen table are now taking place publicly and openly. A question about Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu asked of a table of army officers segued quickly into a lively discussion about his presidential chances, even though several were still in uniform, and sitting in a crowded bar. (Their conclusion: he probably wouldn’t want the job, and in any case is likely excluded as he is not an ethnic Russian, but
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that he’d make a strong prime minister to support a more eco- nomically-minded president.) Even Russian graduate students asked me, a foreigner, whom I thought was next in line.
Of course, I have no idea. It is probably a dangerous move in such a system to be touted as the next president, when the present incumbent has not yet indicated there is a vacancy opening up. Nonetheless, it has become a popular chattering class parlour game to speculate about the next president and his (and it always is his) likely prime minister.
The latter is of more immediate concern. Dmitry Medvedev is generally assumed to be a political dead man walking. He was promised another term as prime minister and so Putin – who may be willing to lie in his teeth about invading neighbouring countries but seems strangely old-fashioned about keeping
his word to his own people – may let him limp along to 2018. However, a combination of his own gaffes, Navalny’s master-
ful campaign and a simple decay in his credibility and support base have all left him with one last role, as scapegoat-in-chief once Putin finally decides to drive him from the political village.
The choice of successor will rightly be scrutinised for clues about Putin’s intent. If a pure technocrat such as Shoigu or central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina is chosen as Medvedev’s successor, then they are not being groomed for the Kremlin.