Page 28 - TURKRptMay19

Will China, India and Turkey play ball? Whether the US can now get largest buyer of Iranian crude China, second largest India and Iran’s neighbour Turkey to play ball with its attempt to entirely thwart Iranian oil exports is now a big question.
April 22 saw Iran and Turkey open a special financial channel for exports of Iranian gas and oil to Turkey, according to Islamic Republic News Agency. Under the system Iranian goods might be paid for with Turkish lira to help it steer clear of US sanctions. Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who was in Turkey last week for discussions on launching the financial mechanism, said he and his Turkish counterpart would personally oversee it.
Tehran bides its time. Tehran seems to be biding its time before outlining exactly how it will respond to Washington’s upping of the stakes in its battle to strangle Iran’s economy to force Middle East policy concessions. It appears to be consulting with countries, including the major member states of the European Union, who like the Iranians are opposed to Trump’s sanctions policy.
Hardline veteran general now heads Guard. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on April 22 replaced the head of the IRGC with a veteran general widely seen as a hardliner, with the move pointedly coinciding with the US change of stance on oil export waivers and days after the US designated the elite group a foreign terrorist organisation (FTO) in an unprecedented move.
China hits out at US over ‘no waivers’ policy on Iranian oil shipments.
China has hit out at the Trump administration’s decision to refuse any more sanctions waivers to countries that continue to buy Iranian oil. Largest purchaser of Iranian oil China, second largest India, Iran’s neighbour Turkey, Japan and South Korea have continued to import volumes of Iranian oil without fear of penalty from Washington thanks to temporary waivers handed out by the US last November. But they are due to expire within days and the US, intent on bringing Iran’s oil exports down to zero as soon as possible to strangle the country’s economy in a bid to force changes in Tehran’s Middle East policy, has said they will not be extended.
Turkey, China vociferous. Like Turkey, China has been vociferous in opposing the US move, while India appears to be mulling its options and Japan has said it expects only a small impact from the ban on Iranian oil asked for by the US. South Korea has little room for manoeuvre given its reliance on US backing in its unresolved difficulties with North Korea.
In March, exports of Iranian oil to China officially reached 1.7mn tonnes, compared to February’s 866,000 tonnes, indicating the country has been preparing for the US decision on waivers. The data was issued by China’s General Administration of Customs.
In 2018, China imported some 29.27mn tonnes, or 585,400 b/d, of Iranian oil. That corresponded to roughly 6% of China’s total oil imports last year.
Iran working “with all our might” to break sanctions. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zangeneh said on April 23 that the US will fail in cutting Iran’s oil exports to nil. He told parliament that Iran would work "with all our might... toward breaking America's sanctions."
Iran’s best hope US middle class? Perhaps Iran’s best hope that Trump’s ‘no waivers’ policy will backfire lies with American middle class consumers. Higher gasoline prices are accounting for a substantial part of the faster wage growth they are currently starting to enjoy and gasoline pump prices could head a good deal higher if other oil suppliers cannot cover for lost Iranian market volumes.
28 TURKEY Country Report May 2019 www.intellinews.com