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or Turkey’s participation therein.
“What is striking though is that both sides now seem resigned to a scenario where S400s are delivered in Turkey, and that the US proceeds to sanction Turkey for that particular arms purchase. Note that Congressional CAATSA legislation passed in 2017 to counter ‘significant’ Russian arms sales, will likely capture the sale of S400s, with the arrival of the weapons system in Turkey requiring action from the US executive branch from a predetermined list of actions (pick list) – unless the WH deems that ‘national security’ concerns deserve the use of a presidential veto. My sense is that the sentiment in Congress is so negative now towards Turkey that it would be very difficult for the WH to veto any such transaction, and especially when it involves the loss of contracts and jobs to the US via lost Patriot sales. There is an assumption in Ankara I think that Trump might veto any CAATSA sanctions, but this looks like an erroneous assumption.”
“Willing to ride through S400 consequences”. “Interestingly, in interactions with the Turkish side, my feeling is that they are now resigned to taking the delivery of S400s, and are willing to ride through the consequences, as they see the delivery of S400s as an important sovereign decision and raises Turkey’s defence capability again all threats (including from the West). They are willing to take any consequences therein—and on this issue, if it is a choice between NATO membership and what it sees as a decision critical to its own defence, it would choose securing S400s.
“What now seems most likely is that the S400s get delivered, the US suspends the F35 contract, and CAATSA sanctions are applied on Turkey—the only issue in this would be what the pick n ‘mix would be from the US Executive. But likely Turkey stays in NATO, but US/Western defence cooperation is scaled down. And, more generally in terms of Turkey’s geopolitical orientation I think this would make a huge statement (game changer), of Turkey’s further move out of the Western orbit and into the hands of Russia and Iran.”
So, is there any way back? “It seems that Turkey has paid a large up-front payment to Russia for the S400s, and generally the view is that it would now be difficult for Turkey to renege on that deal—Erdogan seems eager to keep all his options open with the US and Russia, so burning his bridges with Putin would create particular difficulties and notable also when Turkey is also engaged in a strategic USD20bn project to build a nuclear power capability with the assistance (credits) of Russia. There has been talk of Turkey buying S400s and selling them on to a third party (Saudi, Qatar or India) but this looks like wishful thinking. The other one is buying S400s but not installing them—but CAATSA is based on the actual purchase which would be defined as the delivery of S400s.”
“I sense here that with the establishments in both Turkey and the US resigned to the delivery of S400s, and the prospect of sanctions, then the only way back from the brink, is a direct intervention from President Trump himself, who is known to have good personal relations with President Erdogan. But therein, any such intervention would surely still have to involve Turkey buying Patriots, and presumably also still paying for S400s but not having them delivered. Hard therein to see the latter (and S400s) flying at this stage.”
Another observation from Ash is that the Armenian genocide vote is again expected to come up in the US Congress, potentially roiling relations with Ankara further.
26 TURKEY Country Report May 2019 www.intellinews.com