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according to the poll’s median. The Turkish statistical institute TUIK will announce the official Q1 GDP data on May 31. The Reuters poll participants’ median inflation forecast was for 17.5% at end-Q2 and 15.5% at end-2019. Expectations for the current account deficit in 2019 stood at 2.4% of GDP. When asked whether Turkey will seek funding from the IMF or another outside institution, six respondents said No. Also, Turkey was not expected to hold early presidential and parliamentary elections ahead of the scheduled date of 2023, according to five respondents. Of the analysts with no real faith in the Turkish lira, one is Guillaume Tresca of Credit Agricole who told Reuters: “It’s not a real market...you don’t take the risk on TRY, or if you do it is just for one, two or maybe three days.”
And just who was it that was hosting Mr Albayrak? On March 23, Turkish banking watchdog BDDK initiated investigations into JPMorgan as well as other unspecified banks for allegedly exploiting and aggravating the biggest plunge in the Turkish lira (TRY) seen since last summer’s currency crash. The BDDK accused the two JPMorgan analysts behind the note of putting out “misguiding and manipulative” advice. Subsequently, on March 24, Erdogan warned bankers during an election rally that there would be “a heavy price” to pay after the elections were over. Yet less than a month later, there was Albayrak up on stage in Washington at an event hosted by JPMorgan, underlining once more to those expecting long-term economic reforms from the Turkish government just how long its attention span actually is.
Move to squeeze offshore lira liquidity could worsen Turkey’s growth outlook: Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs has assessed that there is a risk that Turkey's economy could contract more sharply than the 2.5% the investment bank has already pencilled in for this year because of the squeeze in offshore Turkish lira (TRY) liquidity initiated last week.
The Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) last month cut its forecast for Turkish growth in 2019 to -1.8% from -1.4%.
41 TURKEY Country Report May 2019 www.intellinews.com