Page 42 - TURKRptMay19

4.0 Real Economy
TURKEY - GDP growth breakdown (%, y/y)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Annual GDP real
5.17
6.09
3.18
7.44
2.57
GDP per capita USD
-3.01
-9.21
-0.90
-2.59
-17.28
Final consumption expenditure real
2.98
5.43
3.66
6.10
1.15
Gross fixed investment capital formation
5.10
9.28
2.25
7.81
-1.73
Exports USD
3.83
-8.74
-0.91
10.15
6.98
Imports USD
-3.77
-14.43
-4.16
17.71
-4.60
4.1 Industrial production
Turkey spirits lifted by rosier industrial data. Turkey’s calendar-adjusted industrial production index contracted for a sixth consecutive month in February, data from national statistics office TUIK showed on April 16. However, the drop of 5.1% y/y was lower than the revised 9.9% y/y contraction recorded for December and the revised 7.4% y/y fall posted for January, driving hopes that Turkey might be pulling out of the recession it fell into at the end of last year.
Prior to the industrial data release, a Reuters poll predicted a 6.5% y/y fall in the calendar-adjusted industrial output index for February. The median estimate in the poll of seven economists showed respondent’s forecasts ranging between a contraction of 1% and a decline of 8.1%. Economists polled by the news agency see Turkey's economy as recording shrinkage in the first quarters of this year before turning to growth again. Overall, they expect it to
42 TURKEY Country Report May 2019 www.intellinews.com