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bank continue trying to identify the national lender’s real reserve figures—they should simply be based on hard account books, unlike the survey-based plus calendar-adjusted industrial production index.
The base effect caused by the contrast against extreme figures brought on by the summer 2018 lira crisis has since September been providing the TUIK with the plain logic to explain its release of a single-digit inflation rate and positive annual growth rates. The foreign trade figures, on the contrary, are deteriorating due to the base effect coupled with the renewed loan stimuli driven by Erdogan administration officials attempting to re-inflate the economy at the double.
4.2​ Inflation
Turkey’s official annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation moved up less than expected to 10.56% in November from 8.55% in October. The outcome raised expectations for a sizeable rate cut by the central bank at its next monetary policy committee meeting on December 12. That’s despite inflation having risen from its near three-year low and monetary easing having already seen 1,000 bp taken off the benchmark interest rate since July.
4.2.1​ CPI dynamics
28​ TURKEY Country Report​ December 2019 ​ ​www.intellinews.com