Page 10 - TURKRptOct21

The Turkish lira is breaking fresh records.
● Balance of Payments: Current account deficit continues. Financial flows stopped, as a result, they are stable. There is not much hot money left. The game is played only among locals. They can get excited after the 9.00-level in USD/TRY.
The current account deficit will be watched as the tourism season ended with disappointment.
It was early in November when it dawned on the government that it did not have the firepower to continue defending the lira the way it had been. A sharp U-turn that brought in a central bank governor triggered hot money inflows from abroad. On March 19, the governor was fired.
After the rate cut on September 23, reserves and firepower to defend lira are under spotlight again. However, everyone is too bored with this same movie and those who do not have to do business with lira just ignore Turkey, its currency and papers.
● Eurobond auctions remained limited in September.
● NPLs, bailouts and debt restructuring queues continue.
● Snap polls: Erdogan is too sick. It is discussed how the Erdogan regime will be ended.
● The ultimate end: Turkey still has access to borrowing on the markets—though each instance of borrowing at these costs brings the country closer to the ultimate end, namely an economic and political surrender to an IMF programme.
A new version of the ruling AKP, working under an IMF programme is the likeliest potential major change you might see on the road ahead.
10 TURKEY Country Report October 2021 www.intellinews.com