Page 12 - TURKRptOct21

2.4 Foreign relations of a sick man
It seems Erdogan is seen as useless by the global system at the moment (?). He is really sick, menthally and physically. At home, the opposition is discussing how to share the booty. He has no chance if some elections will be held.
However, given that he still holds the single power and he is surrounded by barracudas (called as aids), risks remain high for Turkey although it seems he has lost his support from the Kremlin and the White House to be able to create some chaos like a war in a bid to keep afloat.
At home, he has really dangerous gangs around him (such as the Mehmet Agar) and the risk remains for domestic violence although it seems he is also losing domestic violence chances.
Erdogan went to New York to attend the UN General Assembly but he could not grab a photo opportunity with Joe Biden. He has cried too much and tried to play his stale Vladimir Putin “card.” This open bluff has worked for longer than a decade but it is not sellable now as it seems Erdogan is seen as useless by the global system at the moment.
Russians have been bombing Erdogan’s jihadists in Syria before he goes to Sochi on September 29. He held a private meeting with Vladimir Putin and we do not know what exactly was talked.
Russia wants to open the M4 highway in Idlib and Erdogan will retreat some more grounds now. This is the main deal that we can estimate.
So far, the US has not taken Erdogan’s talk seriously. If the US replies to him, it could create some additional trouble for lira but the Biden administration has seemed so far like they do not like nonsense war of words and they are focused on the job.
At the moment, it seems, Erdogan will need to retreat from some more ground in northern Syria and he will keep chasing to convince the Biden administration that he can be useful as he is in Afghanistan and he deserves photo opportunities.
All in all, it seems Erdogan does not have a future but he has no big trouble in foreign politics at the same time. The Idlib and northern Syria may create some noise but Erdogan should have already been aware that he and his jihadists would have to leave Syria one day.
2.5 SBK
An Austrian court has ruled that Turkish “businessman” Sezgin Baran Korkmaz, known as SBK, can be extradited to Turkey.
The evaluation of the extradition request by the United States is still ongoing.
If the court also accepts the US request, the Austrian government will decide on the fate of SBK.
12 TURKEY Country Report October 2021 www.intellinews.com