Page 107 - RusRPTNov20
P. 107
9.1.1b Oil and gas sector news
Following its meeting, the OPEC Joint Technical Committee warned that a second wave of COVID-19 globally and the increase in production in Libya could lead to another oil surplus in 2021, Reuters reported on Friday, 16 October. The committee also considered a scenario in which 2021 sees a 1.9mn bpd deficit of oil globally, as well as a worst-case scenario in which there is a surplus of 200mbpd next year. This could lead to an adjustment to the plan to raise output by 2mn bpd in 2021. Russia is slated to increase production from 8.99mn bpd in July-December 2020 to 9.5mn bpd starting 1 January 2021. However, OPEC+ has yet to announce any changes to its production plans. Libya has increased production to c. 500mbpd, according to Bloomberg, and is not subject to any production quota despite being a member of OPEC. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will meet today, and the committee could suggest a change in plans. Ministers from OPEC+ should meet on 30 November-1 December to discuss the future of the pact.
The decision of the Polish antimonopoly regulator to impose fines on Gazprom and its financial partners for the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will not have a significant impact on the companies and the project's implementation, since most of the funding has already been completed. Moreover, Warsaw has little chance of confirming the legality of its claims in international courts. This is according to the analysts interviewed by TASS. "The legal and practical ability of the regulator to levy this fine and annul the agreement is questionable. There will most likely be no consequences for Gazprom and Nord Stream 2," says Dmitry Marinchenko, head of the group for natural resources and commodities of the Fitch international rating agency.
OPEC expects that Russia’s annual oil production will increase by only 0.5mn barrels per day until 2045, as compared to 11.4mn barrels per day produced in 2019, OPEC said in its annual World Oil Outlook (WOO) report on Thursday. Russia’s crude production is seen at 10.3mn barrels per day in 2020, 10.4mn barrels per day in 2021, 11mn barrels per day in 2022, 11.4mn barrels per day in 2023, 11.7mn barrels per day in 2024, 11.8mn barrels per day in 2025, 11.9mn barrels per day annually in 2026–2030, and around 12mn barrels per day in 2030–2040.
OPEC also said that global demand for oil will fully recover from the coronavirus-related crisis in 2022. Global demand for crude is seen at 99.7mn barrels per day in 2019, 90.7mn barrels per day in 2020, 97.7mn barrels per day in 2021, 99.8mn barrels per day in 2022, 101.3mn barrels per day in 2023, and around 109mn barrels per day in 2040–2045.
OPEC also said that oil will have a smaller, but still major share of 27.5%
107 RUSSIA Country Report November 2020 www.intellinews.com
