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results, which are likely to be under considerable pressure. Nevertheless, the recovery is strongly positive for its 4Q20 results, which should help the company beat its guidance for the European export price of around $130/mcm this year. We expect the average export price to be close to $160-170/mcm ($4.6-4.7/MMBtu) in 4Q20 and exceed $140/mcm in 2020 ($4.0/MMBtu). The latter figure is about 7% above guidance.
Germany became the largest buyer of Russian gas in Europe as of the end of August, with supplies growing 2.2-fold in monthly terms to 3.21bn cubic meters​, the Russian Customs Service reports. Gas supplies to Germany rose by 10.4% in annual terms in August.
Gas exports to Italy surged by 18.3% monthly and by 7.2 times annually to 2.2bn cubic meters in August 2020.​ Deliveries to France rose by 8.4% year-on-year and 1.9-fold monthly to 1.41bn cubic meters in the reporting month. Gas supplies to Belarus dropped by 3.2% year-on-year to 1.38bn cubic meters. Gas imports by Slovakia gained 11.1% on an annual basis to 1.05bn cubic meters. Gas deliveries to Turkey fell 29% annually but rose almost threefold to 1.05mn cubic meters in the reporting period.
The cost of oil in the next 20 years will remain above $50 per barrel, and in the baseline scenario may rise to $71 per barrel by 2025, to $76 by 2030 and to $85 per barrel by 2040​, according to the report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2020, received by TASS. In a long-term forecast until 2040, the IEA is considering several scenarios for the development of energy markets after the pandemic. Thus, in the basic scenario of the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the agency assumes that the world will gradually be able to gain control over the coronavirus pandemic in 2021. In this case, the global economy will return to pre-crisis levels by the end of the same year. Also in this scenario, countries continue to implement their existing climate target policies. If the coronavirus is not defeated in 2021, and the economic recovery is delayed (Delayed Recovery Scenario), then the oil price will rise in this case too, but already to $59 per barrel by 2025 and to $72 per barrel by 2040. In a more radical scenario (Sustainable Development Scenario), in, which humanity is accelerating the achievement of the climate targets of the Paris Agreement, oil is assumed to cost $57 per barrel in 2025, but by 2040 it drops to $53 per barrel. Long-term price increases will be driven by the need to balance supply in the market. And to stimulate investment, prices are required to rise to $70 per barrel over the next five years, the IEA report says. "After that, prices will stabilize in the range of $75-85 per barrel," the forecast says.
9.1.2 ​Automotive sector news
109 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ November 2020 www.intellinews.com
Russia's car sales (excluding Mercedes-Benz and BMW) increased 3.4% y/y to 154,409 units in September​, according to AEB.