Page 112 - RusRPTNov20

Capital (VTBC) commented on October 13.​ ​Aeroflot Group’s​ traffic was 3mn passengers, down 40% y/y, with its lowcost subsidiary posting 18% y/y growth. Fuel prices were down 41% y/y, offering more relief, while ticket prices were down by 11% y/y and 5% m/m as the market is entering the low season, VTBC noted. However, "the second wave of coronavirus [COVID-19] is gaining momentum," VTBC warned, noting that there is risk of further lockdowns and further deceleration in traffic in the coming months. Sova Capita on October 13 wrote that while Aeroflot is expected to report a 49% y/y decline in its 2020 revenues to RUB341bn ($4.42bn), it is expected to see the top line increase 85% y/y in 2021 to RUB631bn.
The combined passenger traffic of Russian airlines fell 7.2% on the month and 32.5% on the year to 8.65mn people in September​, the Federal Air Transport Agency said on Monday. S7 Airlines transported 1.43mn people in September, up 4.8% on the year. The passenger traffic of national flagship carrier Aeroflot fell 59.5% on the year to 1.32mn people. Aeroflot’s unit, low-cost airline Pobeda transported 1.14mn people in the period, up 17.8% on the year, another unit Rossiya Airlines carried 882,000 people, down 32.5% on the year, the traffic of Ural Airlines decreased 10.6% to 889,000 passengers. In January–September, the combined passenger traffic of Russian airlines decreased 47% on the year to 52.56mn people.
In September, air traffic continued to recover, but the pace subsided in the absence of new triggers. In Russia, it stood at 9mn PAX, down 33% y/y (+2pp m/m), as the domestic market fully recovered ​and reached sustainable growth rate, while international travel saw moderate growth in frequencies.
At the same time, countries were preparing for the second wave of coronavirus. Its effect was clear in Europe, where the number of flights fell 3pp m/m in September, and another 2pp in the first week of October. It is not visible in Russia yet, but we expect a slowdown as well, since the number of new cases has exceeded the peak from May.
In Russia, traffic was 9mn PAX, down 33% y/y (+2pp m/m). In the largest airports, domestic traffic was up 8% y/y (+2pp m/m), while international was down 80% y/y (+8pp m/m), where the recovery was supported by the holiday season.
Aeroflot Group’s traffic was 3mn PAX, down 40% y/y (+1pp m/m). Pobeda grew 18% y/y, while Aeroflot Airlines posted a 60% y/y decline (no recovery compared with August).
Fuel prices stood at RUB26k/t, down 41% y/y. Ticket prices were down 11% y/y and 5% m/m, as airlines are entering the low season. We also
112 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ November 2020 www.intellinews.com