Page 23 - RusRPTNov20

(from 45% in the second quarter). The share of respondents who believe that the economic situation in Russia will not change has increased from 34 to 45%, according to Rosstat.
The indices of expected changes and changes in personal financial situation increased as compared to Q2 2020 by 6% and 5%, respectively. Here, too, the number of optimists is not growing (10%), but the number of those who talk about the deterioration of their financial situation in the past or in the future is decreasing (from 31 to 23%). At the same time, the share of neutral assessments increased from 56 to 64%, the study notes. The decrease in the pessimism of Russians is also evidenced by the growth of their willingness to make large purchases: the corresponding index rose by 13 points compared to the second quarter.
Rosstat's positive data came as a complete surprise to analysts, because before that in September both officials and economists had spoken about a decrease in consumer activity and consumer sentiment.
Another problem with the index is that it is only calculated quarterly and the period between late summer and the start of autumn was one of an improvement in the situation with the epidemic. The results do not take in the recent reversal and the rapid rise of the epidemic from the end of September. That means consumer confidence is likely to tank again in the next quarterly report.
The business confidence ​index is doing far better and remains at -5 four the fourth month in a row.
While the -5 is significantly lower than the usual seasonal number of around -2, it is still an improvement on the exacerbated deep fall over the winter and represents more optimism in the business world, albeit that is still suffering from the harsh operating conditions.
However, that confidence will fade in the coming months as business confidence always falls in the winter months as a seasonal phenomena.
All-in-all the confidence indices both show that 2020 is a major crisis year and that neither consumers nor businessmen believe the crisis has turned the corner, even if they do think it can't get much worse.
23 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ November 2020 www.intellinews.com