Page 39 - RusRPTNov20

"The revision of back data did not alter the trend – after a modest recovery over summer, industrial output saw renewed pressure in September as domestic demand began to weaken," BCS Global Markets commented on October 16.
Still, BCS GM analysts believe that the future trend is dependent on the coronavirus (COVID-19) developments, warning of possible industial output decline if no improvement is seen soon.
At the same time, BCS GM notes that consumer demand is growing stronger, as despite weaker total output in September than in August, consumer-related segments of industry have posted improved their y/y dynamic.
This was seen in such segments as pharmaceuticals (22.4% y/y), textiles (14.5% y/y), automotive (3.3% y/y) and food processing (2.2% y/y). The chemical industry, consumer electronics and production of white goods also posted y/y increases in output.
But the threat of a new COVID-19 wave has already started to weigh on consumer behaviour, as seen in retailers reporting a significant drop in traffic during October.
BCS GM reiterates its 2020 forecast of industrial production at -2.7% y/y, and notes that in case the COVID-19 situation in Russia shows no improvement in the coming 2-3 weeks, the decline in industrial output this year might turn out to be deeper than expected.
39 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ November 2020 www.intellinews.com