Page 79 - RusRPTNov20

CBR plans to sell RUB185bn of proceeds​ from the sale of stake in Sberbank by the end of the year. Analysts surveyed by ​Vedomosti r​ eiterated that CBR's and FinMin's interventions could indeed support ruble, but would be insufficient in case of the materialisation of sanctions risks.
7.1​ FX issues
CBR announced additional FX sales from the NWF to account for the acquisition of​ ​Aeroflot​ shares during the airline’s SPO. ​The purchase of AFLT shares will augment FX sales by RUB4bn/day, adding to the RUB2.9bn/day coming from the Sberbank deal and delayed 2018 purchases. Overall, authorities plan to sell another RUB50bn from the Aeroflot deal, which could be added to the RUB136bn left from FX sales via the Sberbank deal for the rest of 4Q20. Currently, CBR sells RUB8.6bn/day, with about RUB5.8bn/day attributable to MinFin’s direct order under the fiscal rule. Such amounts account for c. 2% of RUB/$daily spot turnover. We think that such an action, which is in line with a recent government directive to limit the disposal of FX assets at the largest SOEs, could provide liquidity support as external markets experience increased volatility. We believe there is a potential respite for the ruble as the overhang from Sberbank’s dividend conversion passes, while Russia-specific and geopolitical risks have subsided somewhat. Despite the uncertainty around the US presidential election and the possible
79 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ November 2020 www.intellinews.com