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lending.
Mortgages are growing on concessional lending. Citizens are in a hurry to get a loan before November 1, when the program is to end - unless, of course, the government finds almost RUB2 trillion for its extension for a year. Sberbank alone issued mortgages worth RUB260bn in September, 90% of these loans are preferential.
So far, there are no signs of a 50% collapse, like in the spring. But in principle it is possible, said Alexei Volkov, Marketing Director of the National Bureau of Credit Histories, to RBC:
"If a strict spring-type quarantine is introduced, the drop in loan issuance month on month may be quite comparable to April of this year."
Seven banks from the top 15 polled by the publication do not see negative dynamics in consumer lending in September​. What is really happening in the sector will become clear in the traditionally high fourth quarter. In the worst case, in 2020, instead of the pre-New Year peak, there will be a recession, but more likely some growth will be achieved due to the provision of loans to the most reliable borrowers.
The growth of mortgages will be limited by the commissioning of housing, the rise in prices for it and a decrease in the incomes of Russians. But there are two bad trends on the market for a mortgage borrower - an increase in the average loan amount due to the fact that the average apartment has risen in price, and the average loan term of up to 200 months (17 years) in pursuit of the minimum monthly payment.
8.1.1​ Earnings
Russia’s banking sector profit rose to 200 billion roubles ($2.59 billion) in September, up from RUB172bn in August, the central bank said..
In the first nine months of 2020, Russian banks made a profit of RUB1.132 trillion, the central bank said.
The central bank said earlier this month Russian banks could collectively make RUB1.2-1.3 trillion in 2020 net profit.
81 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ November 2020 www.intellinews.com