Page 8 - MEOG Week 40 2021

MEOG POLICY & SECURITY MEOG

OPEC+ maintains

production policy despite

OPEC+ THE OPEC+ group announced this week that to varying extents in recent months, though Iraq
it will stick with its planned addition of 400,000 and the UAE in particular have regularly been
barrels per day (bpd) of oil up to the end of guilty of overproduction in recent years.
November, causing price increases amid buoyant The statement noted that “compensation
demand as economies recover from the corona- plans should be submitted in accordance with
virus (COVID-19) pandemic. the statement of the 15th OPEC and non-OPEC
In a press release to accompany the announce- Ministerial Meeting”.
ment, OPEC said that the group “reaffirmed the Meanwhile, there is scepticism that several
decision of the 10th OPEC and non-OPEC Min- member states will not even be able manage
isterial Meeting on 12 April, 2020 and further their part in the 400,000 bpd uptick. One source
endorsed in subsequent meetings including the involved in the meeting told S&P Global Platts:
19th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting “To be honest, the group is not bringing back
on the 18 July, 2021.” 400,000 bpd a month. Many producers can’t
It added that during the October 4 meeting, meet their targets.”
OPEC had “reiterated the critical importance However, another source was quoted by Reu-
of adhering to full conformity and to the com- ters as saying that despite the calls for a higher
pensation mechanism, taking advantage of the production increase, OPEC+ did not want to
extension of the compensation period until the make any significant moves, noting: “we are
end of December 2021.” scared of the fourth wave of corona”.
This marks the latest effort to bring into line With Brent crude rising to more than $81 per
producers that have failed to comply with output barrel on the news, prices have now surged by
quotas. Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Bahrain, Gabon 50% to a three-year high. The next meeting is
and South Sudan have all exceeded their quotas scheduled to take place on November 4.™
Targets (mbpd) Baseline (mbpd)
October 2021 November 2021 Until end May 2022 May 2022 onwards
OPEC
Algeria 0.942 0.952 1.057 1.057
Angola 1.363 1.377 1.528 1.528
Congo (Brazzaville) 0.29 0.293 0.325
Equatorial Guinea 0.114 0.115 0.127
Gabon 0.166 0.168 0.187
Iran Exempt Exempt
Iraq 4.149 4.193 4.653 4.803
Kuwait 2.505 2.532 2.809 2.959
Libya Exempt Exempt
Nigeria 1.631 1.649 1.829 1.829
Saudi Arabia 9.809 9.913 11.000 11.500
UAE 2.825 2.855 3.168 3.500
Venezuela Exempt Exempt
Total 23.794 24.047 26.683 27.176

Non-OPEC
Azerbaijan 0.64 0.647 0.718 0.718
Bahrain 0.183 0.185 0.205 0.205
Brunei 0.091 0.092 0.102 0.102
Kazakhstan 1.524 1.54 1.709 1.709
Malaysia 0.531 0.537 0.595 0.595
Mexico 1.753 1.753 Exempt Exempt
Oman 0.787 0.796 0.883 0.883
Russia 9.809 9.913 11.000 11.500
Sudan 0.067 0.068 0.075 0.075
South Sudan 0.116 0.117 0.130 0.130
Total 15.501 15.648 15.417 15.917

P8 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 40 06•October•2021