Page 5 - FSUOGM Week 12 2021
P. 5
FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM
the government says. Its resource base is the launch in 2030. There is also Rosneft’s 4.3mn tpy
Severo-Obskoye field, currently estimated to Pechora LNG project, also in the far north. This
hold 273.6 bcm in C1+C2 reserves. project has been frozen since failing to secure an
Another, somewhat unique project is Yakutsk export licence, and the government is not fore-
LNG, slated to be built on the mainland shore casting a launch date.
of the Russian Far East. It is unique first of all Other, even more distant, prospects include
because it is led by a relatively small gas company Gazprom’s 30mn tpy Shtokman project,
called Yakutsk Fuel and Energy Co (YATEK), expected online no earlier than 2035, and Ros-
owned by investment group A-Property, rather neft’s 30mn tpy Kara LNG and 35-50mn tpy
than one of the main players in the Russian gas Taymyr LNG ventures, forecast to be up and
market. Secondly, the terminal will be built far running in 2030-2035. Rosneft’s Far East LNG
away from available gas supply, requiring the could also undergo a 10mn tpy expansion by the
construction of a 1,300-km pipeline. The gov- late 2030s, according to the government.
ernment’s programme envisages Yakutsk LNG There is considerable uncertainty about the
commencing operations in 2026-2027, based pace of Russian LNG development, given the
on 820 bcm of initial gas-in place. doubts about how feasible some of these ven-
Next there is the 6.2mn tpy Far East LNG pro- tures are. The government projects that national
ject, backed by Rosneft and its US partner Exx- LNG output could reach between 46 and 65mn
onMobil. Rosneft has been trying to develop its tonnes by 2024, rising to 63-102.5mn tonnes by
own liquefaction capacity for many years with- 2030. By 2035, production could range from
out success. Far East LNG is expected online in anywhere between 80 and 140mn tpy.
2027-2028, but the project is yet to reach an FID. The government's programme is also aimed
Another in the line-up is the 13.3mn tpy Ust- at expanding the use of LNG for gasification.
Luga LNG project led by Gazprom. That facility Given its size, Russia has had difficulty provid-
is due on stream in 2024-2025, relying on some ing gas to energy consumers in its more remote
9.5 tcm of AB1+B2 reserves in Western Siberia. and sparsely populated regions. LNG, which can
The venture suffered a setback earlier this month be trucked to these consumers on a small scale,
when Gazprom cancelled an engineering, pro- offers an alternative to costly pipeline construc-
curement and construction (EPC) contract for tion. Speaking at the government meeting in
its gas processing facilities. which the programme was approved, Deputy
The programme also mentions a 5.4mn tpy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said small-
expansion project at Gazprom’s Sakhalin LNG, scale LNG supply could be used to gasify the
even though this venture has made seemingly regions of Yakutia, Karelia, Amur, Murmansk,
little progress in over a decade. The terminal will Leningrad, Pskov, Tomsk, Kemerovo and
run on gas from the offshore South-Kirinskoye Irkutsk.
field, whose development has been on hold since Russia is about to embark on a RUB1.9 tril-
the US applied sanctions to the deposit in 2015. lion ($25bn), 10-year gasification programme,
The government does not anticipate its launch aimed at expanding the share of the population
before 2027. with access to gas from the current 70% to 83%.
Earlier this month, Russian Prime Minister
Longer term Mikhail Mishustin said small-scale LNG supply
Moving to the longer time frame, Gazprom was a favourable solution for gasification in areas
wants to develop a 20mn tpy export facility on like the Far East. Only 18% of consumers in the
the Yamal peninsula, using resources at the Tam- Far East have access to gas supply, which is three
beyskoye field. The government envisages its times less than the national average, he said.
Week 12 24•March•2021 www. NEWSBASE .com P5