Page 6 - TURKRptJul21

2.0 Politics 2.1 Watchlist
● Global liquidity: The Fed’s balance sheet is breaking fresh records.
A sharp reversal in the money printing is not expected soon. The traditional liquidity dry in August is watched.
The Biden administration’s another package focused on infrastructure investments was agreed. Discussions over the tax hike plans continue.
● Virus lockdowns and demand conditions in Europe.
● Halkbank case: On April 12, a hearing was held at the 2nd US Circuit Court of Appeals in Manhattan, a higher court will decide whether Halkbank can be prosecuted by the US. The appeals court did not say when it will rule. The case stays politicised.
● September 11: Erdogan has managed to dig his claws into a “transactional” partnership with Joe Biden.
He will continue operating the Kabul Airport in Afghanistan after the US’ targeted departure on September 11.
The Afghanistan deal has not been concluded as yet but the Biden administration may now see its way clear to keep Erdogan in power to secure the agreement. It is, after all, always better to do business with a single weak man rather than many.
Such are Erdogan’s growing difficulties, though, the Biden administration’s tentative support may not be enough.
● September 26: Elections in Germany. There is a possibility that Germany, Europe and the rest of the world might be waving goodbye to the German Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
● Corona: Tourism season could not be launched in June. Hopes are pinned on July. Tourists are coming but figures do not look enough to satisfy Turkey’s needs.
● April 29: the central bank hiked its end-2021 inflation forecast to 12.2% from the previous 9.4%. Also, the upper limit on official inflation was moved up to 14.4%, closer to market expectations.
6 TURKEY Country Report July 2021 www.intellinews.com