Page 11 - CE Outlook Regions 2023

1.4 Politics - Latvia

Latvia’s New Unity, United List and National Alliance signed an
agreement on forming a governing coalition on December 14 following
the October general election, but Latvian analysts agree that the country
will not have the stability it had during 2018-2022, when Krisjanis Karins’
New Unity, the conservative-nationalist National Alliance and the New
Conservative Party ruled for a full term.

New Unity won 26 seats in the 100-seat parliament. The opposition
Union of Greens and Farmers received 16 mandates, United List – 15 ,
the right-wing National Alliance – 13, For Stability – 11, Progressives 10
and Latvia First – 9.

Due to the large number of elected parties in the parliament, the
formation of a new government in Latvia is usually a relatively long and
challenging process. This time was not an exception, but it took longer
than before and the country’s analysts doubt if the new government will
last the entire four-year term.

In the current economic and energy crisis, the battle with the
consequences of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, Karins’
government faces a rough ride. The conservative position of the National
Alliance, together with the decentralisation and stubbornness of United
List, is an unstable combination.

Previous experience points to the possible splitting of the United List
and changes of the power balance in parliament. Additionally, the direct
or indirect links between Latvian oligarchs and elected parties increase
the possibility of hidden influence on the new government. In May 2023,
Latvia also holds a new presidential election, which could cause further
instability.

1.5 Politics - Lithuania

2023 will be a year of preparation for the Seimas election in 2024. At the
moment Lithuania’s ruling Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian
Democrats (TS-LKD) is in a good position to retain the relatively high
support it has at the end of 2022. The party has avoided major scandals
since the government formation in 2020 and the parliamentary

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