Page 7 - FSUOGM Week 37

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

Under the business-as-usual case, BP pre- scenarios, with the share of electricity in the final
dicts it to surge by a third over the next three energy mix rising from 20% in 2018 to 34% for
decades, from 3.93 trillion cubic metres last year, business-as-usual, 45% for rapid and over 50%
according to BP’s own estimates. Under the rapid for net zero.
scenario, demand will peak in the mid-2030s Hydrogen and bioenergy are pitched as
but will still be around the same level in 2050 another way of decarbonising energy. Hydrogen
as in 2018. But according to the net-zero case, will increase its share to 16% under the net zero
demand will peak as soon as the mid-2020s and and 7% under the rapid case, whereas bioenergy
drop by a third by 2050. will grow to 10% of primary energy in the net
Gas has two main roles in the energy tran- zero case and 7% in the rapid one.
sition, BP said. First, it can displace coal in
fast-growing, developing economies where Commitments
renewables cannot be deployed fast enough; With new CEO Bernard Looney at the helm,
second, it can be combined with carbon, capture BP has embraced the energy transition, more so
and storage (CCS) to produce near zero-carbon than any of the world’s other leading oil and gas
energy. The rapid and net-zero scenarios see gas companies. This was demonstrated in BP’s net-
combined with CCS accounting between 8 and zero strategy unveiled last month.
10% of primary energy in three decades’ time. The strategy called for a 40% reduction in the
company’s oil and gas production over the next
Clean tech decade, and a similar scaling back of its refining
Unsurprisingly, BP sees renewables on the fast- operations. It also aims to bolster annual invest-
est-growing trajectory, led by rising wind and ments in clean energy tenfold by 2030.
solar capacity. The share of renewables in final “The world is on an unsustainable path: the
energy consumption is seen expanding from a scenarios show that achieving a rapid and sus-
little over 20% in 2018 to 34% in the business-as- tained fall in carbon emissions is likely to require
usual case, 45% in the rapid case and over 50% a series of policy measures, led by a significant
in the net zero case. increase in carbon prices,” BP concluded. “These
Growth will be driven by falling costs, which policies may need to be further reinforced by
are expected to be 30% and 65% lower for wind shifts in societal behaviours and preferences.”
and solar respectively by 2050 under the rapid Delaying either policies or societal shifts will
scenario, and by 35% and 70% respectively in the only make the challenge greater and add to the
net-zero scenario. economic cost and disruption, the company
Electrification will also increase in all three warned. ™

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