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4.5.3 Retail sector dynamics
Ukrainian retail sales advanced 8.4% y/y in 2020 as compared to 10.3% y/y in 2019, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported on January 21. In December, retail sales improved 13.4% y/y (vs. 12.1% y/y growth in November), or 20.0% m/m.
Regionally, the highest retail growth in 2020 occurred in the Kyiv (18.7% y/y), Zaporizhia (15.7% y/y) and Chernihiv (14.2% y/y) regions. A decline in retail sales was limited to the Zakarpattia (-2.7% y/y) region.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Retail sales boomed in 2020, backed by fast growth of real wages. Relatively low inflation, which was observed for the most of the year, also helped to boost retail growth in real terms. We expect consumer demand to stay strong in 2021, with retail sales accelerating to 10% y/y growth.
Although attendance at shopping malls dropped by 26% y/y last year, overall retail sales were up 7.6% for the first 11 months of 2020, reports NAI Ukraine, the commercial real estate consulting company. Alarmed by the coronavirus quarantine controls, many shopping centre developers pushed off openings to 2021: stage two of the Blockbuster Mall – 55,000 square meters; Ocean Mall – 99,000; the stage two of April – 47,000; and White Lines – 21,000. With these four expansions alone – 222,000 square meters – rents will remain soft and the retail vacancy rate is expected to rise above its current level of 10%, NAI predicts in its study.
31 UKRAINE Country Report February 2021 www.intellinews.com
